FK Sarajevo is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 66% chance of success, thanks in part to their opponent Radnik Bijeljina's struggles on the road. Radnik Bijelina has conceded an average of 1.71 goals when playing away against stronger opponents, which could spell trouble for them against FK Sarajevo.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal match. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15.5% chance of occurring.
FK Sarajevo has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 1.89 goals and conceding just 0.44 goals per match. In contrast, Radnik Bijelina has struggled to score when playing away against stronger opponents, managing just 0.29 goals per match.
The model's selection is a Home win, which is the most likely outcome. The model also suggests an Under 3.5 total goals, with a 77.9% chance of success, and an Over 1.5 total goals, with a 70% chance of success. The home win percentage is 66%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 11%.
Results analysis
FK Sarajevo's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches came to an end as they drew 0-0 against Radnik Bijeljina. The result was a major upset, as the home team was expected to win. The model had predicted a home win with a 66% probability, but unfortunately, its call was incorrect. The model's selection was correct in suggesting that the match would go under 3.5 goals, with a 77.9% probability, as the actual total was 0. However, it missed the mark on the over 1.5 goals prediction, with a 70.1% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
65.8%
Avg Implied 65.6% · @ 1.37
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Dafabet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
William Hil
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Draw✓ Hit
23.7%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.00
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Pinnacle
4.07
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
10.5%
Avg Implied 11.9% · @ 7.56
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.55
Marathonbet
8.20
888Sport
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.77
1.64
0.50
1.44
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.50
1.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.68
0.86
1.67
0.56
1.69
1.08
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
1.07
0.80
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.71
0.86
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.94
1.38
0.75
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.1%
@ 1.27-0.7%
Under 1.5
29.9%
@ 3.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
10Bet
3.25
888Sport
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 1.91-5.1%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.77+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
888Sport
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Under
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
@ 3.19-6.2%
Under 3.5
77.9%
@ 1.25+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.50
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Superbet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.2%
@ 2.15-4.0%
No
61.8%
@ 1.57+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
888Sport
2.20
William Hil
2.20
No
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.5%@ 5.16+7.3%
2-0
14.9%@ 5.48+7.2%
1-1
10.7%@ 7.39+5.0%
0-0 ✓
10.1%@ 8.23+5.0%
3-0
8.9%@ 8.10+3.8%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.54+3.2%
3-1
5.3%@ 11.38+1.6%
0-1
4.4%@ 14.86+1.6%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
4.4%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
1
15%
11%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
8.8%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
8.9%
5.3%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
4.0%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
FK Sarajevo is 0.83 points better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
FK Sarajevo is 0.75 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
FK Sarajevo is 0.22 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.93
0.21
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.25
1.40
0.40
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.59
0.32
0.67
0.11
0.54
0.46
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.42
0.57
0.29
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.71
0.29
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.25
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.55
1.00
0.44
1.15
0.62
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.53
0.40
0.13
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.83
0.14
0.57
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.88
0.25
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.1%
1.27
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
-0.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €5m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
FK Sarajevo and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €2m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€3m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka