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FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2025
Time: 16:30
Final 0-1
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Vs
55%
27%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win✓ Hit
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W01L20W00D20W02L00D21W40W40WH·IGM29/03H·BOR02/04A·GOŠ05/04H·ZRI11/04A·BOR15/04A·BOR19/04H·SLO22/04H·ZEL27/04A·SLO03/05H·SIR07/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.571.530.602.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.670.830.571.000.800.60
vs Weaker (18)2.500.392.380.252.600.50
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L30W11D00D01L12L20W12L01L04LH·VEL28/03H·ZEL02/04A·RAD05/04H·POS12/04A·ZEL16/04A·IGM19/04H·GOŠ23/04A·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.471.561.311.501.64
vs Stronger (9)0.782.331.502.000.202.60
vs Similar (19)1.471.211.581.081.291.43
vs Weaker (2)5.500.00--5.500.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.3%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
11.6%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.2%
0-1 ✓
6.0%
3-1
5.0%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
01234
010%6.0%2.9%0.8%0.2%
113%13%4.6%1.2%0.2%
212%9.3%3.7%1.0%0.2%
36.2%5.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%
42.5%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.48
Borac Banja Luka
2.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.97
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Sloga Doboj
1.33
Velež
1.27
Radnik Bijeljina
1.21
Posušje
1.12
Igman Konjic
0.88
GOŠK Gabela
0.48
Sloboda Tuzla
0.30
FK Sarajevo is 0.58 points better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.18
FK Sarajevo
1.79
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.67
Velež
1.36
Radnik Bijeljina
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.30
Posušje
1.09
Sloga Doboj
1.06
Igman Konjic
0.91
GOŠK Gabela
0.85
Sloboda Tuzla
0.64
FK Sarajevo is 0.48 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.39
Zrinjski
0.52
FK Sarajevo
0.73
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.15
Velež
1.18
Posušje
1.18
Sloga Doboj
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Radnik Bijeljina
1.58
Igman Konjic
2.00
Sloboda Tuzla
2.15
GOŠK Gabela
2.30
FK Sarajevo is 0.67 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D10W02L00D10W20W20WH·IGM29/03H·BOR02/04A·GOŠ05/04H·ZRI11/04A·BOR15/04A·BOR19/04H·SLO22/04H·ZEL27/04A·SLO03/05H·SIR07/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.330.600.331.130.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.330.580.140.570.600.60
vs Weaker (18)1.220.171.000.121.400.20
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W01L00D01L01L10W01L01L02LH·VEL28/03H·ZEL02/04A·RAD05/04H·POS12/04A·ZEL16/04A·IGM19/04H·GOŠ23/04A·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.940.500.640.79
vs Stronger (9)0.331.220.751.250.001.20
vs Similar (19)0.790.421.000.250.430.71
vs Weaker (2)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D20W00D10W00D00D11D20W20WH·IGM29/03H·BOR02/04A·GOŠ05/04H·ZRI11/04A·BOR15/04A·BOR19/04H·SLO22/04H·ZEL27/04A·SLO03/05H·SIR07/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.230.930.270.870.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.330.250.430.430.200.00
vs Weaker (18)1.280.221.380.121.200.30
Clean sheet %80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L10W10W00D00D11D10W11D00D02LH·VEL28/03H·ZEL02/04A·RAD05/04H·POS12/04A·ZEL16/04A·IGM19/04H·GOŠ23/04A·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.830.620.810.860.86
vs Stronger (9)0.441.110.750.750.201.40
vs Similar (19)0.680.790.580.830.860.71
vs Weaker (2)2.500.00--2.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €5m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€9m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €2m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €1m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FS wins
2
Draws
2
SB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg · H/A from FS
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg4-0
02/03/25HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg1-0
30/09/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS3-3
26/05/24ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS2-2
18/02/24HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg1-3
22/09/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS1-0
29/04/23HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg2-1
05/03/23ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS1-3

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg4-0
03/05/25ASloga Doboj Vs FS0-4
27/04/25HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-1
22/04/25HFS Vs Sloboda Tuzla0-0
19/04/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS2-0
15/04/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS0-2
11/04/25HFS Vs Zrinjski0-0
05/04/25AGOŠK Gabela Vs FS0-2
02/04/25HFS Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
29/03/25HFS Vs Igman Konjic3-0

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25AFK Sarajevo Vs SB4-0
03/05/25HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
27/04/25AZrinjski Vs SB2-1
23/04/25HSB Vs GOŠK Gabela2-0
19/04/25AIgman Konjic Vs SB2-1
16/04/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0
12/04/25HSB Vs Posušje0-0
05/04/25ARadnik Bijeljina Vs SB1-1
02/04/25HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-0
28/03/25HSB Vs Velež2-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.98
HomeLDDWW1.92
AwayWWWLW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%54%58%
AVG goals2.582.462.71
Over 1.5 %72%77%67%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.801.691.92
Conceded0.780.770.79
BTTS40%50%29%
Clean Sheet50%38%62%
Corners---
Cards---
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.26
HomeLWDWL1.36
AwayDLLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.822.802.84
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.401.481.32
Conceded1.421.321.52
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3382
79%
2.5
7217+55
2.7
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.20.5
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3381
79%
2.5
5813+45
2.2
64%
30%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.80.4
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3365
55%
2.0
5924+35
2.5
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.80.7
-
4Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3365
61%
2.0
5538+17
2.8
76%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.71.2
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3346
39%
1.4
4346-3
2.7
73%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.31.4
-
6Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3344
39%
1.3
3545-10
2.4
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.4
-
7VeležVelež3342
30%
1.3
4539+6
2.5
70%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.41.2
-
8Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3340
36%
1.2
4452-8
2.9
82%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.31.6
-
9PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
3639-3
2.3
73%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3329
24%
0.9
3066-36
2.9
79%
61%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3316
12%
0.5
2876-48
3.2
88%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3310
3%
0.3
2171-50
2.8
76%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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