FK Sarajevo’s home advantage is the decisive factor in this match, with the model rating a 62% chance of a home win. The team’s recent form shows a dip after a loss to Zrinjski, yet their average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded at home against weaker opponents keeps the odds high. Siroki Brijeg, struggling on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger sides, which the model interprets as a clear weakness. The predicted outcome is a 1-0 victory for Sarajevo, with a 14.9% probability for that exact scoreline, while the expected total goals is 2.4, most likely a single-goal total of 2 goals at 27%. The model’s suggested picks include an 99.7% chance of Under 7.5, 99.5% for Away under 3.5 goals, 98.9% for Under 6.5, 97.0% for Away under 2.5 goals, 96.6% for Under 5.5, 96.4% for Home +2 handicap, 90.7% for Under 4.5, and 90.4% for Home under 3.5 goals. The probabilities for the match result are 62% home win, 25% draw, and 13% away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Sarajevo win
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg win
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.77
1.44
0.50
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
1.33
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.48
0.86
1.50
0.50
1.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Siroki Brijeg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.30
1.22
0.78
1.00
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.3%
No
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
2-0
13.2%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
7.3%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.0%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Siroki Brijeg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
5.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
15%
12%
3.7%
0.9%
0.1%
2
13%
9.1%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
7.3%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
3.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Siroki Brijeg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
FK Sarajevo is 0.56 points better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
FK Sarajevo is 0.47 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
FK Sarajevo is 0.31 goals better than Siroki Brijeg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Sarajevo or Draw
85.9%
Avg Implied -
60%
26%
14%
covers FK Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo or Siroki Brijeg
73.8%
Avg Implied -
60%
26%
14%
covers FK Sarajevo + Siroki Brijeg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Siroki Brijeg
40.2%
Avg Implied -
60%
26%
14%
covers Draw + Siroki Brijeg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Sarajevo, so a minus line means FK Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Siroki Brijeg receive them. At -1, FK Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo -2
15.0%
Draw -2
19.0%
Siroki Brijeg +2
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo -1
34.0%
Draw -1
25.7%
Siroki Brijeg +1
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo +1
85.9%
Draw +1
10.0%
Siroki Brijeg -1
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo +2
96.0%
Draw +2
3.2%
Siroki Brijeg -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.88
0.19
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.29
0.70
0.10
0.27
0.45
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Siroki Brijeg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.56
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.56
0.31
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.57
0.80
0.40
1.18
0.73
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.22
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €5m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €2m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €1m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Siroki Brijeg's (€3m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina