FK Sarajevo’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 1-0 win over BSK Banja Luka, sets the tone for a comfortable home advantage. The model rates a home win the clear favourite, assigning a 68 % chance, while a draw sits at 25 % and an away win at 8 %. The expected total goals hover at 2.1, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 28 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0, a 20.3 % chance, reflecting Sarajevo’s strong home form: they average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opponents. Sloga Doboj, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.33 goals scored and concedes 2.67, underscoring their vulnerability. The model’s suggested picks echo this narrative: Away under 3.5 goals99.9 %, Under 7.599.9 %, Under 6.599.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals99.2 %, Home +2 handicap98.5 %, Under 5.598.1 %, Under 4.594.2 %, and Away under 1.5 goals93.7 %. Each selection carries its own probability, with no other outcomes attached.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Sarajevo win
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj win
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.77
1.44
0.50
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
1.33
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.48
0.86
1.50
0.50
1.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.33
0.71
1.29
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
2.09
0.00
2.40
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.94
1.11
0.67
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.0%
Under 1.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.1%
Under 2.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.8%
Under 3.5
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
27.8%
No
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
21.0%
2-0
16.3%
0-0
15.6%
1-1
10.3%
3-0
8.1%
2-1
7.0%
0-1
5.3%
3-1
3.5%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Sloga Doboj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
5.3%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
1
21%
10%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
7.0%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
3
8.1%
3.5%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
4
3.0%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Sloga Doboj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
FK Sarajevo is 0.86 points better than Sloga Doboj in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
FK Sarajevo is 0.92 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
FK Sarajevo is 0.25 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Sarajevo or Draw
90.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
28%
9%
covers FK Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo or Sloga Doboj
72.5%
Avg Implied -
63%
28%
9%
covers FK Sarajevo + Sloga Doboj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sloga Doboj
36.9%
Avg Implied -
63%
28%
9%
covers Draw + Sloga Doboj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Sarajevo, so a minus line means FK Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Sloga Doboj receive them. At -1, FK Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo -2
14.2%
Draw -2
20.1%
Sloga Doboj +2
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo -1
34.3%
Draw -1
28.7%
Sloga Doboj +1
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo +1
90.6%
Draw +1
7.5%
Sloga Doboj -1
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Sarajevo)
FK Sarajevo +2
98.1%
Draw +2
1.6%
Sloga Doboj -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.88
0.19
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.29
0.70
0.10
0.27
0.45
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.00
0.73
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.67
0.44
0.56
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.56
0.31
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.57
0.80
0.40
1.18
0.73
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.29
0.64
0.31
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.36
0.00
1.40
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.33
0.44
0.22
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €6m more valuable than Sloga Doboj's (€9m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €1m more valuable than Sloga Doboj's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €2m more valuable than Sloga Doboj's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Sloga Doboj's (€3m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina