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FK Sarajevo vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2024
Time: 18:45
Final 3-0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Vs
45%
30%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Sarajevo win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L01L03L22D40W51W32W00D11D34LH·SIR18/02A·ZVI24/02A·ZEL03/03H·IGM09/03H·GOŠ16/03A·TUZ29/03H·IGM06/04A·ZEL14/04H·BOR20/04A·ZRI24/04
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.232.200.931.201.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.181.361.400.601.002.00
vs Weaker (19)2.001.162.601.101.331.22
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L11D20W10W11D01L31W10WA·SLO16/02H·BOR24/02A·POS03/03H·TUZ11/03H·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04A·ZRI13/04H·ZVI19/04H·SLO23/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.931.810.811.001.07
vs Stronger (9)0.891.441.601.200.001.75
vs Similar (16)1.440.881.620.751.251.00
vs Weaker (5)2.400.202.670.332.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
10.5%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.5%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
011%7.9%4.5%1.5%0.4%
112%14%6.3%2.1%0.5%
29.0%8.9%4.4%1.4%0.4%
34.2%4.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.5%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
FK Sarajevo is 0.09 points worse than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
FK Sarajevo is 0.21 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
FK Sarajevo is 0.30 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L00D20W20W31W00D01L13LH·SIR18/02A·ZVI24/02A·ZEL03/03H·IGM09/03H·GOŠ16/03A·TUZ29/03H·IGM06/04A·ZEL14/04H·BOR20/04A·ZRI24/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.501.070.330.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.600.400.171.17
vs Weaker (19)1.000.321.300.300.670.33
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L11D20W00D01L01L10W10WA·SLO16/02H·BOR24/02A·POS03/03H·TUZ11/03H·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04A·ZRI13/04H·ZVI19/04H·SLO23/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.750.440.290.71
vs Stronger (9)0.220.780.400.600.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.620.750.500.380.75
vs Weaker (5)1.000.001.330.000.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L02L22D20W31W01L00D10W21WH·SIR18/02A·ZVI24/02A·ZEL03/03H·IGM09/03H·GOŠ16/03A·TUZ29/03H·IGM06/04A·ZEL14/04H·BOR20/04A·ZRI24/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.731.130.600.730.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.820.550.800.200.830.83
vs Weaker (19)1.000.841.300.800.670.89
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D10W10W00D21W00DA·SLO16/02H·BOR24/02A·POS03/03H·TUZ11/03H·IGM17/03A·ZEL29/03H·BOR07/04A·ZRI13/04H·ZVI19/04H·SLO23/04
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.371.060.380.710.36
vs Stronger (9)0.670.671.200.600.000.75
vs Similar (16)0.880.250.880.250.880.25
vs Weaker (5)1.400.201.330.331.500.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €5m more valuable than Velež's (€9m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €1m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
FS wins
1
Draws
2
VEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Sarajevo vs Velež · H/A from FS
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/23AVelež Vs FS1-0
28/08/23HFS Vs Velež1-0
21/05/23AVelež Vs FS3-5
12/03/23HFS Vs Velež0-1
19/09/22AVelež Vs FS1-1

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/24AZrinjski Vs FS4-3
20/04/24HFS Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1
14/04/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS0-0
06/04/24HFS Vs Igman Konjic3-2
29/03/24ATuzla City Vs FS1-5
16/03/24HFS Vs GOŠK Gabela4-0
09/03/24HFS Vs Igman Konjic2-2
03/03/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS3-0
24/02/24AZvijezda 09 Vs FS1-0
18/02/24HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg1-3

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/24HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
19/04/24HVEL Vs Zvijezda 093-1
13/04/24AZrinjski Vs VEL1-0
07/04/24HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1
29/03/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
17/03/24HVEL Vs Igman Konjic2-0
11/03/24HVEL Vs Tuzla City1-1
03/03/24APosušje Vs VEL1-0
24/02/24HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka0-0
16/02/24ASloga Doboj Vs VEL0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.60
HomeLDWWD1.84
AwayLLWDL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%40%
AVG goals2.942.962.92
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.661.881.44
Conceded1.281.081.48
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners11.5010.0013.00
Cards6.006.00-
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.62
HomeDWDWW1.93
AwayWDLWL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%35%
AVG goals2.302.671.87
Over 1.5 %56%63%48%
Over 2.5 %32%37%26%
Over 3.5 %22%30%13%
Scored1.341.700.91
Conceded0.960.960.96
BTTS36%44%26%
Clean Sheet46%52%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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