FK Sarajevo are tipped to win, with a 48% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 25% for Velež. The model predicts an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Sarajevo’s home form shows they score 1.78 goals and concede 0.67 against weaker opposition, while Velež, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (89.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.7%) and Under 4.5 (85.7%). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as FK Sarajevo failed to deliver the pre-match favourite win, losing 0-1 to Velež. The model had picked a home win with a 48% probability, but the call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away victory. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (89.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.7%), and Under 4.5 (85.7%). FK Sarajevo’s unbeaten run in the last five matches ended, while Velež, coming off a win, proved resilient. The low-scoring affair matched the model’s expectation of a tight game.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.85
0.62
1.18
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.67
2.00
0.50
0.40
2.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
0.86
1.78
0.67
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.20
0.67
1.17
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.79
1.22
0.33
1.30
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.5%
0-1 ✓
6.1%
2-2
5.3%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.1%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.3%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.5%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
FK Sarajevo is 0.62 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
FK Sarajevo is 0.50 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
FK Sarajevo is 0.75 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Sarajevo or Draw✗ Miss
74.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
27%
25%
covers FK Sarajevo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo or Velež✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
27%
25%
covers FK Sarajevo + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Velež✓ Hit
52.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
27%
25%
covers Draw + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Sarajevo, so a minus line means FK Sarajevo give that many goals of a start and Velež receive them. At -1, FK Sarajevo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Sarajevo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Sarajevo)Actual: Velež
FK Sarajevo -2
10.8%
Draw -2
14.9%
Velež +2
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Sarajevo)Actual: Velež
FK Sarajevo -1
25.7%
Draw -1
22.1%
Velež +1
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Sarajevo)Actual: Draw
FK Sarajevo +1
74.9%
Draw +1
14.9%
Velež -1
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Sarajevo)Actual: FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo +2
89.8%
Draw +2
7.1%
Velež -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.15
0.65
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.33
1.50
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.43
0.78
0.22
0.75
0.58
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.33
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.70
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.37
0.44
0.11
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.85
0.46
0.53
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.44
0.75
0.42
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.42
0.78
0.22
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Borac Banja Luka
Zrinjski
Siroki Brijeg
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Radnik Bijeljina
Posušje
Sloga Doboj
Rudar Prijedor