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FK Sarajevo vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 22/03/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Vs
51%
29%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Sarajevo win✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W10W10W30W01L02L22D14L01LA·ZRI14/12H·RAD06/02A·ČEL11/02A·SLO15/02H·POS21/02H·VEL25/02A·BOR28/02H·RUD07/03A·VEL11/03A·SIR15/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.231.770.690.941.65
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.891.782.000.330.332.50
vs Weaker (21)1.481.001.700.801.271.18
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D21W01L10W10W01L10W41W21WA·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02H·ZEL21/02A·FK 25/02A·RAD28/02H·POS06/03H·FK 11/03A·RUD15/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.801.200.531.071.07
vs Stronger (9)0.891.001.201.000.501.00
vs Similar (20)1.250.751.200.301.301.20
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.9%
Under 1.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.0%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.9%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
012%7.3%3.4%0.9%0.2%
114%14%4.9%1.3%0.3%
211%8.8%3.6%1.0%0.2%
35.3%4.2%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.9%1.5%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
FK Sarajevo is 0.39 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
FK Sarajevo is 0.50 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
FK Sarajevo is 0.06 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D00D20W00D00D10W12L00DA·ZRI14/12H·RAD06/02A·ČEL11/02A·SLO15/02H·POS21/02H·VEL25/02A·BOR28/02H·RUD07/03A·VEL11/03A·SIR15/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.370.850.080.530.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.670.331.330.000.330.50
vs Weaker (21)0.670.380.700.100.640.64
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W01L00D00D00D00D21W00DA·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02H·ZEL21/02A·FK 25/02A·RAD28/02H·POS06/03H·FK 11/03A·RUD15/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.370.400.270.330.47
vs Stronger (9)0.220.560.400.600.000.50
vs Similar (20)0.450.300.400.100.500.50
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W10W10W01L02L12L02L01LA·ZRI14/12H·RAD06/02A·ČEL11/02A·SLO15/02H·POS21/02H·VEL25/02A·BOR28/02H·RUD07/03A·VEL11/03A·SIR15/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.870.920.620.411.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.221.440.670.330.002.00
vs Weaker (21)0.810.621.000.700.640.55
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D00D10W10W01L10W20W21WA·SLO13/12H·BOR07/02H·SIR11/02A·SIR15/02H·ZEL21/02A·FK 25/02A·RAD28/02H·POS06/03H·FK 11/03A·RUD15/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.430.800.270.730.60
vs Stronger (9)0.670.440.800.400.500.50
vs Similar (20)0.800.450.800.200.800.70
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €5m more valuable than Velež's (€9m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €1m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FS wins
3
Draws
2
VEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Sarajevo vs Velež · H/A from FS
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/26AVelež Vs FS4-1
25/02/26HFS Vs Velež0-1
02/12/25AVelež Vs FS0-0
20/09/25HFS Vs Velež2-0
18/05/25AVelež Vs FS2-2
08/03/25AVelež Vs FS0-0
19/10/24HFS Vs Velež4-0
28/04/24HFS Vs Velež3-0

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs FS1-0
11/03/26AVelež Vs FS4-1
07/03/26HFS Vs Rudar Prijedor2-2
28/02/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS2-0
25/02/26HFS Vs Velež0-1
21/02/26HFS Vs Posušje3-0
15/02/26ASloga Doboj Vs FS0-1
11/02/26AČelik Vs FS0-1
06/02/26HFS Vs Radnik Bijeljina2-0
14/12/25AZrinjski Vs FS0-1

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26ARudar Prijedor Vs VEL1-2
11/03/26HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo4-1
06/03/26HVEL Vs Posušje1-0
28/02/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs VEL1-0
25/02/26AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
21/02/26HVEL Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-0
15/02/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs VEL1-0
11/02/26HVEL Vs Siroki Brijeg2-1
07/02/26HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka0-0
13/12/25ASloga Doboj Vs VEL1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.62
HomeWWWLD1.92
AwayWWLLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.362.252.46
Over 1.5 %68%62%73%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %20%17%23%
Scored1.341.541.15
Conceded1.020.711.31
BTTS34%33%35%
Clean Sheet46%50%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.52
HomeDWWWW1.79
AwayWLWLW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%35%
AVG goals2.122.122.12
Over 1.5 %56%50%62%
Over 2.5 %38%42%35%
Over 3.5 %18%25%12%
Scored1.141.291.00
Conceded0.980.831.12
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet32%46%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2010.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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