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FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 1-0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Vs
51%
30%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives FK Sarajevo a 51% win probability against Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in the Bosnia: Premijer Liga on 2026-05-25, with 30% for the draw and 19% for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (14.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).

Results analysis

FK Sarajevo finished 1-0 against Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 51% home win, 30% draw and 19% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Sarajevo win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D21W21W40W10W01L42W22D32WH·VEL22/03A·ZEL04/04H·ZRI11/04A·RAD18/04H·SLO22/04A·POS26/04H·BOR03/05A·RUD09/05H·SIR16/05A·VEL21/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.831.790.501.191.12
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.500.500.002.00
vs Similar (4)1.001.001.501.000.501.00
vs Weaker (23)1.700.782.100.401.381.08
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D30W11D10W00D02L30W01L22DA·SIR22/03H·FK 04/04A·RAD11/04H·POS17/04A·RUD21/04H·VEL25/04A·ZRI01/05H·SLO10/05A·BOR16/05H·SIR21/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.131.131.130.731.13
vs Stronger (10)0.801.701.201.200.402.20
vs Similar (10)0.901.201.331.330.251.00
vs Weaker (10)1.100.500.750.751.330.33
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.4%
Under 1.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.7%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
12.5%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.7%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
01234
012%7.5%3.3%0.9%0.2%
115%13%4.7%1.2%0.2%
211%8.7%3.3%0.9%0.2%
35.3%4.1%1.6%0.4%0.1%
41.9%1.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
FK Sarajevo is 0.64 points better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
FK Sarajevo is 0.56 goals better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
FK Sarajevo and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D21W11D10W00D01L01L11D01LH·VEL22/03A·ZEL04/04H·ZRI11/04A·RAD18/04H·SLO22/04A·POS26/04H·BOR03/05A·RUD09/05H·SIR16/05A·VEL21/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.330.930.210.380.44
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
vs Similar (4)0.750.501.000.500.500.50
vs Weaker (23)0.650.301.000.100.380.46
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D20W00D00D00D02L00D00D21WA·SIR22/03H·FK 04/04A·RAD11/04H·POS17/04A·RUD21/04H·VEL25/04A·ZRI01/05H·SLO10/05A·BOR16/05H·SIR21/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.630.270.600.400.67
vs Stronger (10)0.201.000.000.600.401.40
vs Similar (10)0.500.600.670.830.250.25
vs Weaker (10)0.300.300.000.250.500.33
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (56)
€11m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
FK Sarajevo's squad is €5m more valuable than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's (€9m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (25)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €1m more valuable than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's (€3m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
BBL (8)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's midfield is €1m more valuable than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (23)
€5m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
ZS (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's defence is €2m more valuable than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
FS wins
4
Draws
2
ZS wins

Head-to-head

FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · H/A from FS
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS0-0
07/12/25HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo4-0
27/09/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS2-0
27/04/25HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-1
22/02/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS0-0
25/09/24HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-1
14/04/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS0-0
03/03/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS3-0

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26AVelež Vs FS2-3
16/05/26HFS Vs Siroki Brijeg2-2
09/05/26ARudar Prijedor Vs FS2-4
03/05/26HFS Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
26/04/26APosušje Vs FS0-1
22/04/26HFS Vs Sloga Doboj4-0
18/04/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs FS1-2
11/04/26HFS Vs Zrinjski2-1
04/04/26AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs FS0-0
22/03/26HFS Vs Velež1-0

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26HZS Vs Siroki Brijeg2-2
16/05/26ABorac Banja Luka Vs ZS1-0
10/05/26HZS Vs Sloga Doboj3-0
01/05/26AZrinjski Vs ZS2-0
25/04/26HZS Vs Velež0-0
21/04/26ARudar Prijedor Vs ZS0-1
17/04/26HZS Vs Posušje1-1
11/04/26ARadnik Bijeljina Vs ZS0-3
04/04/26HZS Vs FK Sarajevo0-0
22/03/26ASiroki Brijeg Vs ZS1-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.74
HomeWWWLD2.04
AwayDWWWW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%58%42%
AVG goals2.522.352.71
Over 1.5 %70%65%75%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.461.621.29
Conceded1.060.731.42
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet42%50%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.42
HomeDDDWD1.69
AwayDWWLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.442.542.33
Over 1.5 %66%73%58%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.201.420.96
Conceded1.241.121.38
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
5152.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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