PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FK Sarajevo vs Zrinjski Result & Analysis

Date: 16/09/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Vs
26%
29%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Sarajevo win✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D53W24L22D11D12L30W21W10W22DH·ZEL12/05A·VEL21/05H·IGM28/05A·TOR13/07H·TOR20/07H·SLO30/07H·POS11/08A·TUZ21/08H·VEL28/08A·GOŠ02/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.231.401.071.671.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.121.250.801.001.671.67
vs Weaker (22)1.681.231.701.101.671.33
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L01L22D62W01L31W12L53W11D01LH·FC 18/07H·SLO25/07A·SLO01/08H·BRE10/08A·BRE17/08H·GOŠ20/08A·LAS24/08H·ZVI27/08H·LAS31/08H·POS13/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.002.311.121.710.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.401.101.001.401.800.80
vs Weaker (20)2.350.952.911.001.670.89
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
9.2%
1-2
9.1%
0-2
8.6%
1-0 ✓
7.2%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
4.8%
FK Sarajevo goals ↓
Zrinjski goals →
01234
09.2%10%8.6%4.2%1.6%
17.2%14%9.1%4.5%1.7%
24.5%6.6%4.8%2.4%0.9%
31.6%2.3%1.7%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Sarajevo goals (down), columns = Zrinjski goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
FK Sarajevo is 0.61 points worse than Zrinjski in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 2.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
FK Sarajevo is 0.58 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 2.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
FK Sarajevo is 0.33 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W23L01L10W11D10W20W00D01LH·ZEL12/05A·VEL21/05H·IGM28/05A·TOR13/07H·TOR20/07H·SLO30/07H·POS11/08A·TUZ21/08H·VEL28/08A·GOŠ02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.670.470.670.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.380.380.400.200.330.67
vs Weaker (22)0.770.500.800.600.750.42
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D01L50W00D21W02L32W10W01LH·FC 18/07H·SLO25/07A·SLO01/08H·BRE10/08A·BRE17/08H·GOŠ20/08A·LAS24/08H·ZVI27/08H·LAS31/08H·POS13/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.401.250.380.570.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.400.600.200.400.60
vs Weaker (20)1.150.401.550.450.670.33
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L32W01L21W01L01L20W01L10W21WH·ZEL12/05A·VEL21/05H·IGM28/05A·TOR13/07H·TOR20/07H·SLO30/07H·POS11/08A·TUZ21/08H·VEL28/08A·GOŠ02/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.770.730.601.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.880.400.801.331.00
vs Weaker (22)0.910.730.900.500.920.92
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L21W12L01L10W10W21W01L00DH·FC 18/07H·SLO25/07A·SLO01/08H·BRE10/08A·BRE17/08H·GOŠ20/08A·LAS24/08H·ZVI27/08H·LAS31/08H·POS13/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.060.751.140.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.900.700.401.201.400.20
vs Weaker (20)1.200.551.360.551.000.56
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards84.5%--------
Under 11.5 corners77.2%--------
Under 3.575.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.2%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Zrinjski
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zvonimir Kožulj25%
Aldin Hrvanović17%
Nemanja Bilbija12%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Josip Ćorluka12%
Matija Malekinušić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Filip Bradarić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zvonimir Kožulj50%
Dario Čanađija43%
Nemanja Bilbija38%
Aldin Hrvanović33%
Slobodan Jakovljević29%
Filip Bradarić25%
Matija Malekinušić25%
Kerim Memija14%
Mario Ćuže12%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tomislav Kiš25%
Antonio Ivančić12%
Josip Ćorluka12%
Matija Malekinušić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Filip Bradarić0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Kerim Memija0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Zvonimir Kožulj0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Aldin Hrvanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dario Čanađija14%
Mario Ćuže12%
Filip Bradarić0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Kerim Memija0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Matej Senić0%
Stipe Radić0%
Marko Marić0%
Zvonimir Kožulj0%
Damir Zlomislić0%
Petar Mišić0%
Tomislav Kiš0%
Josip Ćorluka0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Mario Tičinović0%
Matija Malekinušić0%
Aldin Hrvanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
FK Sarajevo and Zrinjski have a similar squad value (both €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo's attack is €1m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€3m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
FK Sarajevo and Zrinjski have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
FK Sarajevo and Zrinjski have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FS wins
0
Draws
2
ZRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Sarajevo vs Zrinjski · H/A from FS
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/23AZrinjski Vs FS2-3
26/02/23HFS Vs Zrinjski0-2
04/09/22AZrinjski Vs FS4-1

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23AGOŠK Gabela Vs FS2-2
28/08/23HFS Vs Velež1-0
21/08/23ATuzla City Vs FS1-2
11/08/23HFS Vs Posušje3-0
30/07/23HFS Vs Sloga Doboj1-2
20/07/23HFS Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-1
13/07/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs FS2-2
28/05/23HFS Vs Igman Konjic2-4
21/05/23AVelež Vs FS3-5
12/05/23HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-2

ZrinjskiZrinjski

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/23HZRI Vs Posušje0-1
31/08/23HZRI Vs Lask Linz1-1
27/08/23HZRI Vs Zvijezda 095-3
24/08/23ALask Linz Vs ZRI2-1
20/08/23HZRI Vs GOŠK Gabela3-1
17/08/23ABreidablik Vs ZRI1-0
10/08/23HZRI Vs Breidablik6-2
01/08/23ASlovan Bratislava Vs ZRI2-2
25/07/23HZRI Vs Slovan Bratislava0-1
18/07/23HZRI Vs FC Urartu1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.60
HomeLDLWW1.71
AwayLWDWD1.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%48%42%
AVG goals2.902.623.21
Over 1.5 %72%67%79%
Over 2.5 %52%48%58%
Over 3.5 %38%29%47%
Scored1.551.481.63
Conceded1.351.141.58
BTTS55%52%58%
Clean Sheet25%38%11%
Corners11.5010.0013.00
Cards6.006.00-
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL2.10
HomeWWWDL2.30
AwayLWDLL1.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%74%57%
AVG goals2.683.222.04
Over 1.5 %64%70%57%
Over 2.5 %50%63%35%
Over 3.5 %28%41%13%
Scored1.862.331.30
Conceded0.820.890.74
BTTS44%52%35%
Clean Sheet42%41%43%
Corners7.737.837.60
Cards6.095.676.60

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

← all matches