FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Naftagas taking the victory. The match is expected to see three goals on average, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% chance. Spartak, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Naftagas, on the road against a stronger side, has yet to score or concede in recent outings. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 96.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.4%, Under 5.5 at 91.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.5%, Home +2 handicap at 87.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 85.1% and Home over 0.5 goals at 82.0%. The model’s selection of a home win aligns with Spartak’s stronger home form and the overall shape of the contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftagas win
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.03
1.27
2.40
1.20
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
2.60
1.17
2.83
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.72
1.00
2.14
1.18
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.00
2.50
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftagas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV goals ↓
Naftagas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.2%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.1%
12%
7.2%
3.2%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.3%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.0%
5.3%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV goals (down), columns = Naftagas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV is 0.83 points better than Naftagas in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV is 1.33 goals better than Naftagas in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV is 0.33 goals worse than Naftagas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Draw
71.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
29%
covers FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Naftagas
74.2%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
29%
covers FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV + Naftagas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Naftagas
54.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
29%
covers Draw + Naftagas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 1.5
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 3.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 0.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5
Over
38.3%
Under
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, so a minus line means FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV give that many goals of a start and Naftagas receive them. At -1, FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV)
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV -2
10.7%
Draw -2
14.1%
Naftagas +2
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV)
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV -1
24.8%
Draw -1
20.7%
Naftagas +1
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV)
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV +1
71.3%
Draw +1
15.8%
Naftagas -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV)
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV +2
87.1%
Draw +2
8.4%
Naftagas -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.20
0.50
1.17
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.72
0.57
0.71
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftagas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.73
1.53
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.40
0.67
1.67
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
1.00
0.43
1.43
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftagas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
2.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.75
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lincoln25%
Nemanja Milunović22%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho22%
Nikola Kuveljić21%
Stefan Tomović19%
Veljko Jocić14%
Aleksa Trajković12%
Filip Holender11%
Nenad Miranovic10%
Ezequiel8%
Luka Subotić8%
Nemanja Krsmanović7%
Dario Pavković7%
Ilija Babić4%
Danijel Kolaric3%
Cajú0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Yohan Bilingi0%
Boris Sekulić0%
Luka Bijelović0%
Leonardo Antonio0%
José Mulato0%
Kayque0%
Aleksandar Vulić0%
Brian Ramírez0%
Eldar Mehmedović0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Uroš Čejić0%
Marin Dulić0%
Vladimir Vitorović0%
Nikola Tasić0%
Francis Ebuka Nwokeabia0%
Andjelko Pavlovic0%
Uroš Čejić0%
Dimitrije Minić0%
Daniel James Wisdom0%
Enzo0%
Stefan Jovanovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kayque100%
Veljko Jocić71%
Uroš Čejić38%
Nikola Kuveljić36%
Danijel Kolaric34%
Nemanja Milunović33%
Brian Ramírez33%
Andjelko Pavlovic33%
Daniel James Wisdom33%
Eldar Mehmedović30%
Luka Subotić23%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho22%
Luka Bijelović20%
Stefan Jovanovic20%
Muhamed Bešić19%
Leonardo Antonio18%
Francis Ebuka Nwokeabia17%
Ezequiel15%
Boris Sekulić14%
Yohan Bilingi13%
Dario Pavković13%
Nikola Tasić12%
Enzo12%
Nemanja Krsmanović11%
Marin Dulić10%
Aleksa Trajković8%
Aleksandar Vulić8%
Dimitrije Minić8%
Stefan Tomović6%
Lincoln6%
Cajú0%
Filip Holender0%
Ilija Babić0%
José Mulato0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Vladimir Vitorović0%
Uroš Čejić0%
Nenad Miranovic0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Tomović19%
Ezequiel15%
Veljko Jocić14%
Filip Holender11%
Nemanja Krsmanović11%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho9%
Leonardo Antonio9%
Nikola Kuveljić7%
Lincoln6%
Uroš Čejić6%
Muhamed Bešić5%
Ilija Babić4%
Francis Ebuka Nwokeabia4%
Aleksa Trajković4%
Boris Sekulić4%
Danijel Kolaric3%
Yohan Bilingi3%
Nemanja Milunović0%
Cajú0%
Luka Bijelović0%
José Mulato0%
Kayque0%
Aleksandar Vulić0%
Brian Ramírez0%
Eldar Mehmedović0%
Luka Subotić0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Marin Dulić0%
Dario Pavković0%
Vladimir Vitorović0%
Nikola Tasić0%
Andjelko Pavlovic0%
Uroš Čejić0%
Dimitrije Minić0%
Daniel James Wisdom0%
Nenad Miranovic0%
Enzo0%
Stefan Jovanovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladimir Vitorović25%
Dario Pavković13%
Lincoln12%
Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho12%
Filip Holender11%
Brian Ramírez8%
Stefan Tomović6%
Aleksa Trajković4%
Nemanja Milunović0%
Ezequiel0%
Cajú0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Yohan Bilingi0%
Boris Sekulić0%
Nikola Kuveljić0%
Luka Bijelović0%
Leonardo Antonio0%
Ilija Babić0%
José Mulato0%
Kayque0%
Nemanja Krsmanović0%
Aleksandar Vulić0%
Eldar Mehmedović0%
Luka Subotić0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Uroš Čejić0%
Marin Dulić0%
Veljko Jocić0%
Danijel Kolaric0%
Nikola Tasić0%
Francis Ebuka Nwokeabia0%
Andjelko Pavlovic0%
Uroš Čejić0%
Dimitrije Minić0%
Daniel James Wisdom0%
Nenad Miranovic0%
Enzo0%
Stefan Jovanovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
FSZ wins
0
Draws
0
NAF wins
Head-to-head
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Naftagas · H/A from FSZ
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
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Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar