FK Tobol Kostanay are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model picking a home win with a 54% chance. The match is expected to be a modest affair, with an average of 2.9 goals and a most likely total of 2, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% chance, even though the final result was a 1-0 win for the hosts. Tobol’s home form shows they average 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Aktobe, on the road, struggles to find the net, averaging zero goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.2% probability. The probabilities for the match result are 54% home win, 25% draw, 21% away win. The model’s selection list includes only the Over 1.5 pick, which stands at 79.2%.
Results analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay’s win over Aktobe was a quiet 1-0, extending their recent run to a win after a defeat. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct and came with a 54% probability. The pre-match favourite was the home side, and the model’s call matched the outcome. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.2% probability, but it missed. The match finished 1-0, a home win as predicted. The model’s selection for a home win proved accurate, while the Over 1.5 goal pick failed, illustrating a tough day for the selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.32
1.87
0.73
1.23
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.00
1.83
0.67
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.85
1.46
2.12
0.88
1.40
2.40
Clean sheet %
36% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.55
1.00
2.00
0.55
1.09
1.45
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.86
1.14
3.25
0.75
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.93
1.29
0.43
1.50
1.38
Clean sheet %
32% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0 ✓
9.2%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.7%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.9%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.2%
12%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.7%
6.0%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Astana
2.08
Aktobe
2.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.46
FK Aksu
1.38
Maqtaaral
1.19
Kaspiy
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.15
Shakhter Karagandy
1.15
Atyrau
1.12
Taraz
1.08
Arys
1.08
Akzhayik
0.96
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.19 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.77
Aktobe
1.65
Ordabasy
1.38
Kairat Almaty
1.31
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.27
FK Aksu
1.23
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Atyrau
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.08
Taraz
1.04
Kaspiy
1.00
Arys
0.96
Akzhayik
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.12 goals better than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.81
Aktobe
1.08
Taraz
1.12
Akzhayik
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.35
Arys
1.35
Kairat Almaty
1.38
FK Aksu
1.42
Maqtaaral
1.46
Ordabasy
1.50
Atyrau
1.50
Kaspiy
1.62
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.19 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 3.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 18.5 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
9.0
10.0
8.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
30.0
33.0
27.0
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
11.0
12.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (13)
7.3
9.0
6.5
1.8
2.0
1.6
33.0
33.0
-
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
33%
14%
13%
15%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
50%
67%
86%
87%
85%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.61
0.73
0.40
0.54
0.85
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.38
0.83
0.33
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.69
0.75
0.50
0.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
61% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.45
0.45
0.73
0.36
0.18
0.55
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.27
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
59% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.71
1.13
0.33
0.69
1.15
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.00
0.33
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.77
1.38
0.38
1.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.09
0.55
1.27
0.18
0.91
0.91
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.71
1.75
0.25
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.47
1.00
0.14
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
64% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
KAS (4)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's attack is €2m less valuable than Aktobe's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Ordabasy
FK Aksu
Maqtaaral
Kaspiy
Kyzyl-Zhar
Shakhter Karagandy
Atyrau
Taraz
Arys
Akzhayik