Defensive solidity is the headline for this Kazakhstan Premier League clash, with FK Tobol Kostanay’s home form showing a low average of 0.29 goals conceded per game and a modest 1.14 goals scored. Aktobe, on the road, has been less efficient, conceding 1.38 goals on average while scoring only 0.75. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.2 goals and a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, with probabilities of 37% for a Tobol victory, 32% for a draw and 31% for an Aktobe win. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 82.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.1% and Over 2.5 cards at 74.7%. Both sides are coming off defeats, which may add to the cautious approach expected.
Results analysis
The win for FK Tobol Kostanay extends their recent form, as they recover from a defeat to Kaspiy. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win with a 37% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score read 2-0, a home victory. The most likely total of 2 goals materialised, matching the model’s expectation. The single suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with an 82.1% probability. All selections settled, the model delivered a clean sweep, confirming its predictions and reinforcing confidence in its forecasting accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.10
1.07
0.47
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.00
1.14
0.29
1.33
1.56
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
1.21
1.00
0.62
0.83
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.71
0.93
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.40
1.29
1.43
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (15)
2.00
0.53
2.14
0.43
1.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.6%
Under 1.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.4%
Under 2.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.9%
Under 3.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.5%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.7%
2-0 ✓
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
6.0%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.4%
7.7%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.8%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Turan Turkistan
0.62
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.42 points better than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Turan Turkistan
0.96
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.23 goals better than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Turan Turkistan
2.23
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.15 goals better than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 2.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
27.2
28.0
26.5
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
14.0
8.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
28.0
29.0
27.0
vs Similar (24)
8.5
5.0
12.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
26.5
27.0
26.0
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.9
0.6
1.2
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
14%
12%
15%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
86%
88%
85%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.5
8.0
0.9
1.2
0.5
27.0
26.0
29.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
9.0
9.5
8.0
1.3
1.8
0.7
27.0
26.0
29.0
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.5
0.6
0.4
-
-
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
12%
16%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
67%
50%
100%
88%
84%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
FC Astana
3.9
Kairat Almaty
3.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.13
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
0.71
0.00
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.64
0.50
0.25
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.79
0.36
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.13
1.14
0.00
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.47
0.33
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.43
0.29
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.93
0.57
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.86
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.40
1.00
0.43
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's attack is €2m less valuable than Aktobe's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kairat Almaty
FC Astana
Yelimay Semey
Zhenys
Ordabasy
Okzhetpes
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhetysu
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Turan Turkistan