FK Tobol Kostanay are tipped to win at home, the model’s favourite outcome, with a 48% chance of victory, a 26% draw probability and a 27% chance of Aktobe taking the win. The match is expected to see about three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.9% probability.
Tobol’s home form shows they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Aktobe, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Both sides have recently come off defeats, with Tobol losing 0-1 to Kaspiy and Aktobe falling 1-2 to Irtysh.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 5.5 (91.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.9%), Home +2 handicap (88.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe win
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
1.92
1.15
1.71
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.19
1.71
1.43
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.75
2.40
0.60
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
1.29
1.07
1.62
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.50
1.12
1.12
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
1.21
1.40
1.00
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
7.5%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
3-1
5.7%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Aktobe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.0%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.5%
12%
6.8%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.5%
5.7%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.0%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.13 points better than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.63 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.67 goals better than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 7.5 · Against 8.0 · Total 15.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
15.5
21.0
10.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
15.5
21.0
10.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
4%
4%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
96%
96%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.2
0.3
0.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Tobol Kostanay or Draw
74.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers FK Tobol Kostanay + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay or Aktobe
74.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers FK Tobol Kostanay + Aktobe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aktobe
51.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Aktobe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Tobol Kostanay, so a minus line means FK Tobol Kostanay give that many goals of a start and Aktobe receive them. At -1, FK Tobol Kostanay must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Tobol Kostanay win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay -2
12.1%
Draw -2
15.1%
Aktobe +2
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay -1
27.2%
Draw -1
21.3%
Aktobe +1
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay +1
74.0%
Draw +1
14.8%
Aktobe -1
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay +2
88.8%
Draw +2
7.5%
Aktobe -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.08
0.62
1.00
0.35
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.11
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.42
1.40
0.20
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.25
0.38
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.36
0.80
0.20
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.86
0.43
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.79
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.86
0.60
0.80
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's attack is €2m less valuable than Aktobe's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu