This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.29
1.07
0.88
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
3.00
0.75
1.75
0.50
4.25
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.08
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0 â
8.7%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.5%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
FC Astana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
7.6%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.7%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.7%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.1%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = FC Astana goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.25
Yelimay Semey
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.25
Taraz
2.25
SD Family
2.25
Aktobe
2.00
Ordabasy
2.00
Jas Qyran
2.00
Atyrau
1.80
Irtysh
1.75
AKAS
1.67
Kairat Almaty
1.50
FC Astana
1.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Ulytau
1.50
FK Aksu
1.50
Zhetisay
1.33
Okzhetpes
0.67
Kaspiy
0.50
Ekibastuz
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Kyran
0.50
Khan Tengri
0.33
Turan Turkistan
0.33
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Shakhter Karagandy
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.75 points better than FC Astana in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.50).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atyrau
2.80
FK Aksu
2.50
Kairat Almaty
2.00
Zhetisay
1.67
Jas Qyran
1.67
Taraz
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kyran
1.50
AKAS
1.33
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25
Yelimay Semey
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Aktobe
1.20
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Irtysh
0.75
FC Astana
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Ulytau
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Turan Turkistan
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.75 goals better than FC Astana in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.50).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.00
FC Astana
0.50
Irtysh
0.50
Akademiya Ontustik
0.50
Aktobe
0.60
Taraz
0.75
Atyrau
0.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Ulytau
1.00
Yelimay Semey
1.00
AKAS
1.00
Zhetisay
1.00
Akzhayik
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.33
Turan Turkistan
1.33
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Maqtaaral
1.50
Khan Tengri
1.67
SD Family
1.75
Kaspiy
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Yassy Turkistan
2.00
FK Aksu
2.50
Kaisar
3.00
Kyran
3.00
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.50 goals worse than FC Astana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.50).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Tobol Kostanay or Drawâ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
32%
covers FK Tobol Kostanay + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay or FC Astanaâ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
32%
covers FK Tobol Kostanay + FC Astana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Astanaâ Miss
60.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
32%
covers Draw + FC Astana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Tobol Kostanay, so a minus line means FK Tobol Kostanay give that many goals of a start and FC Astana receive them. At -1, FK Tobol Kostanay must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Tobol Kostanay win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Tobol Kostanay)Actual: FC Astana
FK Tobol Kostanay -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.0%
FC Astana +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Tobol Kostanay)Actual: Draw
FK Tobol Kostanay -1
19.1%
Draw -1
20.3%
FC Astana +1
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Tobol Kostanay)Actual: FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay +1
67.9%
Draw +1
17.9%
FC Astana -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Tobol Kostanay)Actual: FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.5%
FC Astana -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.62
0.78
0.44
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.40
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.64
0.21
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.25
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.17
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.10
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.47
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.38
0.78
0.33
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.67
0.40
0.40
0.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Astana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Astana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.64
0.86
0.44
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.12
0.50
1.25
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Astana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
FC Astana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kipras Kazukolovas50%
Marin Tomasov25%
Branimir Kalaica25%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Karlo Bartolec0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip ÄondriÄ0%
Barnes Osei0%
Aleksa AmanoviÄ0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip ÄondriÄ67%
Max Ebong50%
Aleksa AmanoviÄ50%
Islambek Kuat33%
Karlo Bartolec25%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles25%
Barnes Osei20%
Elkhan Astanov20%
Ramazan Karimov17%
Marin Tomasov0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Karlo Bartolec50%
Marin Tomasov25%
Yan Vorogovskiy25%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip ÄondriÄ0%
Barnes Osei0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Aleksa AmanoviÄ0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Nnamdi Ahanonu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nnamdi Ahanonu33%
Geoffrey Chinedu Charles25%
Marin Tomasov0%
Ramazan Karimov0%
Karlo Bartolec0%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Max Ebong0%
Josip ÄondriÄ0%
Barnes Osei0%
Branimir Kalaica0%
Aleksa AmanoviÄ0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Islambek Kuat0%
Yan Vorogovskiy0%
Aleksandr Marochkin0%
Elkhan Astanov0%
Kipras Kazukolovas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana have a similar squad value (both €9m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana have a similar attack value (both €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Astana's (€4m vs €5m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →