PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FK Aksu Result & Analysis

Date: 04/03/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 3-1
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
Vs
62%
23%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
62.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu win✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W32W02L21W31W03L10W12L20W31WH·ORD27/08A·KAI05/09H·ATY10/09A·FC 14/09H·SHA02/10A·FK 08/10H·AKT15/10A·MAQ23/10A·TAR29/10A·AKZ06/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.331.870.731.471.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.000.001.005.00
vs Similar (13)1.541.001.710.571.331.50
vs Weaker (15)1.931.472.291.001.621.88
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L42W43W10W01L30W10W22D02L21WA·AKT26/08H·MAQ04/09A·TAR10/09H·AKZ15/09A·KAS01/10H·FK 08/10A·ARY14/10H·ORD24/10A·KAI30/10H·ATY06/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.421.690.920.771.92
vs Stronger (10)0.801.901.601.200.002.60
vs Similar (16)1.501.121.750.751.251.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
1-0
11.1%
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.6%
0-0
7.2%
3-1 ✓
6.3%
1-2
4.2%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
FK Aksu goals →
01234
07.2%4.2%2.2%0.6%0.1%
111%11%4.2%1.2%0.2%
212%9.8%4.1%1.1%0.2%
37.6%6.3%2.6%0.7%0.2%
43.7%3.1%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = FK Aksu goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.62 points better than FK Aksu in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 0.69).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.27 goals better than FK Aksu in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.88).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.50 goals better than FK Aksu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.73).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

For 3.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

120543532210479851211H·ZRIA·ZRIA·LINA·FERH·FER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

1207543221123127425H·ZRIA·ZRIA·LINA·FERH·FER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 18.5 · Total 30.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

33014199183327H·ZRIA·FER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FK AksuFK Aksu

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (32)9.010.08.30.91.10.830.033.027.0
vs Stronger (2)11.511.012.03.55.02.027.0-27.0
vs Similar (14)7.39.06.51.61.71.633.033.0-
vs Weaker (16)---0.00.00.0---
% over line40%50%33%12%12%12%100%100%100%
% under line60%50%67%88%88%88%0%0%0%
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (26)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (10)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (16)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
18.5%
Under 9.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
98.9%
Under 3.5
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W01L11D11D03L00D02L20W10WH·ORD27/08A·KAI05/09H·ATY10/09A·FC 14/09H·SHA02/10A·FK 08/10H·AKT15/10A·MAQ23/10A·TAR29/10A·AKZ06/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.730.400.670.87
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (13)0.770.380.710.290.830.50
vs Weaker (15)0.670.730.860.570.500.88
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L22D22D00D01L30W00D22D00D10WA·AKT26/08H·MAQ04/09A·TAR10/09H·AKZ15/09A·KAS01/10H·FK 08/10A·ARY14/10H·ORD24/10A·KAI30/10H·ATY06/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.850.850.540.311.15
vs Stronger (10)0.501.001.000.800.001.20
vs Similar (16)0.620.750.750.380.501.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L01L10W20W00D10W10W00D21WH·ORD27/08A·KAI05/09H·ATY10/09A·FC 14/09H·SHA02/10A·FK 08/10H·AKT15/10A·MAQ23/10A·TAR29/10A·AKZ06/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.701.130.330.801.07
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (13)0.770.621.000.290.501.00
vs Weaker (15)1.270.731.430.431.121.00
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK AksuFK Aksu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W21W10W00D00D10W00D02L11DA·AKT26/08H·MAQ04/09A·TAR10/09H·AKZ15/09A·KAS01/10H·FK 08/10A·ARY14/10H·ORD24/10A·KAI30/10H·ATY06/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.580.850.380.460.77
vs Stronger (10)0.300.900.600.400.001.40
vs Similar (16)0.880.381.000.380.750.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards99.7%--------
Over 3.5 cards98.9%--------
Over 4.5 cards96.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners94.0%--------
Over 5.5 cards93.0%--------
Under 10.5 corners89.1%--------
Under 9.5 corners81.5%--------
Over 1.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 8.5 corners71.0%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
FTK wins
0
Draws
1
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FK Aksu · H/A from FTK
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22AFK Aksu Vs FTK3-0
07/05/22HFTK Vs FK Aksu2-0

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22AAkzhayik Vs FTK1-3
29/10/22ATaraz Vs FTK0-2
23/10/22AMaqtaaral Vs FTK2-1
15/10/22HFTK Vs Aktobe1-0
08/10/22AFK Aksu Vs FTK3-0
02/10/22HFTK Vs Shakhter Karagandy3-1
14/09/22AFC Astana Vs FTK1-2
10/09/22HFTK Vs Atyrau0-2
05/09/22AKairat Almaty Vs FTK2-3
27/08/22HFTK Vs Ordabasy4-0

FK AksuFK Aksu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22HFA Vs Atyrau2-1
30/10/22AKairat Almaty Vs FA2-0
24/10/22HFA Vs Ordabasy2-2
14/10/22AArys Vs FA0-1
08/10/22HFA Vs FK Tobol Kostanay3-0
01/10/22AKaspiy Vs FA1-0
15/09/22HFA Vs Akzhayik1-0
10/09/22ATaraz Vs FA3-4
04/09/22HFA Vs Maqtaaral4-2
26/08/22AAktobe Vs FA1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.72
HomeDWLWW2.19
AwayWLLWW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals2.842.503.19
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %56%38%75%
Over 3.5 %38%31%44%
Scored1.591.811.38
Conceded1.250.691.81
BTTS53%38%69%
Clean Sheet38%56%19%
Corners9.0010.008.33
Cards6.008.504.33
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.38
HomeWWWDW2.00
AwayLWLWL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%62%23%
AVG goals2.652.622.69
Over 1.5 %69%77%62%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %19%15%23%
Scored1.231.690.77
Conceded1.420.921.92
BTTS42%54%31%
Clean Sheet35%46%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy2658
69%
2.2
4821+27
2.7
73%
54%
31%
5.0
0%
4.4
60%
-
0%
10
3341.80.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2653
62%
2.0
3624+12
2.3
65%
42%
15%
8.5
50%
2.9
38%
-
0%
10
3251.40.9
-
3AktobeAktobe2650
50%
1.9
4423+21
2.6
73%
46%
31%
10.0
50%
5.9
88%
-
0%
10
5231.70.9
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2644
46%
1.7
4333+10
2.9
77%
69%
38%
-
0%
3.0
50%
-
0%
10
4241.71.3
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2639
42%
1.5
2523+2
1.8
50%
31%
8%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
4
2111.00.9
-
6KaisarKaisar2636
38%
1.4
3130+1
2.3
65%
42%
27%
-
0%
5.0
50%
-
0%
4
2121.21.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2634
35%
1.3
3032-2
2.4
73%
46%
15%
-
0%
3.2
50%
-
0%
9
3241.21.2
-
8AtyrauAtyrau2634
31%
1.3
2427-3
2.0
54%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.0
-
9MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2629
31%
1.1
2932-3
2.3
73%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2629
27%
1.1
3136-5
2.6
81%
54%
23%
11.0
100%
2.3
17%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11ZhetysuZhetysu2629
31%
1.1
2738-11
2.5
77%
50%
15%
6.0
0%
6.1
100%
-
0%
3
1021.01.5
-
12OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2627
27%
1.0
2637-11
2.4
62%
42%
19%
13.0
100%
2.5
25%
-
0%
5
2111.01.4
-
13KaspiyKaspiy2620
15%
0.8
2844-16
2.8
77%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.7
-
14FK AksuFK Aksu2618
19%
0.7
2345-22
2.6
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches