The contest between FK Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. The draw probability sits at 27%, while the away side’s chances are 35%. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most probable total is two, a 24% event. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with a 12.3% chance, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Tobol’s home form shows an average of 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Kairat’s away record against such teams yields 1.5 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 91.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.2% (hit), Over 3.5 cards at 80.0%, and Under 10.5 corners at 76.0%. The match is poised to swing either way, with the home side’s slight edge reflected in the probabilities.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FK Tobol Kostanay, who had just suffered a defeat, fell short of the pre-match favourite. The final score was 2-3, an away win for Kairat Almaty, which meant the model’s pick of a home win was wrong. The model had given the home side a 39% chance of triumph, while the odds for a draw and an away win were 27% and 35% respectively. The only other suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.2% probability, and it hit as the match produced five goals. The result confirms Kairat’s form, extending their recent run after a win against Yelimay Semey.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win✗ Miss
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.27
1.80
0.87
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.00
1.57
0.57
1.29
1.43
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
1.36
2.29
1.29
1.71
1.43
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.57
1.33
1.53
1.67
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
2.55
1.60
2.40
1.50
2.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
1.00
1.20
1.10
1.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
5.9%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Kairat Almaty goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.1%
5.3%
2.6%
0.9%
1
6.6%
12%
8.2%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.6%
6.3%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.0%
4.4%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Kairat Almaty goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.38 points worse than Kairat Almaty in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.50 goals worse than Kairat Almaty in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.04 goals better than Kairat Almaty in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 3.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 18.5 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kairat Almaty
For 6.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (39)
9.0
10.0
8.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
30.0
33.0
27.0
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
11.0
12.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (18)
7.3
9.0
6.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
33.0
33.0
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
33%
10%
10%
11%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
50%
67%
90%
90%
89%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
11.0
13.0
9.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (22)
11.0
13.0
9.0
0.4
0.5
0.3
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
3%
6%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
97%
94%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
10.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
8.7
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Zhetysu
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
Aktobe
6.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
FC Astana
4.5
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.1%
Under 9.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
80.0%
Under 3.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.29
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.79
0.86
0.57
0.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.18
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.42
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.20
0.47
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.71
1.14
0.29
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.57
1.43
0.71
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.67
0.87
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.36
0.80
1.40
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.58
0.60
0.60
0.78
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
Luís Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Luís Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Aktobe
Kyzyl-Zhar
Kaisar
Atyrau
Maqtaaral
Shakhter Karagandy
Zhetysu
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Aksu