FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty Result & Analysis

The contest between FK Tobol Kostanay and Kairat Almaty is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.5, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% chance. Tobol, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded, while Kairat, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 38% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 32% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 80.1%, Under 3.5 at 76.2% (missed), Over 2.5 cards at 74.6%, and Over 1.5 at 72.2% (hit). With both sides recently mixed, the game remains uncertain, but the slight edge to the home side keeps the forecast balanced.

The upset came as FK Tobol Kostanay, the pre-match favourite, fell short, losing 1-3 to Kairat Almaty. The model had tipped a home win with a 38% probability, but that call proved wrong. The match saw Kairat’s away form, coming off a 2-0 win, prove decisive. The model’s other selections were mixed: the Under 3.5 total, at 76.2%, missed, while the Over 1.5 total, at 72.2%, hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (14.1%) did not materialise, and the predicted 2-goal total was off. Overall, the prediction model’s favourite was incorrect, and only one of its suggested picks succeeded.