FK Tobol Kostanay are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 12.8% chance. Tobol’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Yelimay’s away record is 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.2%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%). Home win probability stands at 51%, draw 27% and away win 23%. The recent form notes that Tobol come off a win, while Yelimay return from a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey win
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
1.92
1.15
1.71
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.19
1.71
1.43
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.75
2.40
0.60
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.33
1.57
1.29
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.69
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.88
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.93
2.00
1.00
2.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
6.5%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Yelimay Semey goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.1%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.4%
12%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.7%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.9%
5.7%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Yelimay Semey goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.80 points better than Yelimay Semey in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.03 goals better than Yelimay Semey in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.50 goals better than Yelimay Semey in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 7.5 · Against 8.0 · Total 15.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Yelimay Semey
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
15.5
21.0
10.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
15.5
21.0
10.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
4%
5%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
96%
95%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Tobol Kostanay or Draw
76.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
24%
covers FK Tobol Kostanay + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay or Yelimay Semey
74.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
24%
covers FK Tobol Kostanay + Yelimay Semey
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yelimay Semey
49.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
24%
covers Draw + Yelimay Semey
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Tobol Kostanay, so a minus line means FK Tobol Kostanay give that many goals of a start and Yelimay Semey receive them. At -1, FK Tobol Kostanay must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Tobol Kostanay win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay -2
12.7%
Draw -2
15.7%
Yelimay Semey +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay -1
28.4%
Draw -1
22.0%
Yelimay Semey +1
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay +1
76.0%
Draw +1
14.1%
Yelimay Semey -1
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Tobol Kostanay)
FK Tobol Kostanay +2
90.1%
Draw +2
6.8%
Yelimay Semey -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.08
0.62
1.00
0.35
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.11
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.42
1.40
0.20
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.43
1.50
0.17
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.86
0.43
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.64
1.06
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.69
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.83
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay's squad is €2m more valuable than Yelimay Semey's (€9m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Yelimay Semey have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay's midfield is €2m more valuable than Yelimay Semey's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay and Yelimay Semey have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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Ordabasy
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu