The contest between FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhetysu is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 41% for a Tobol victory, 31% for a draw and 29% for a Zhetysu win, so the most likely outcome is a home win. The expected total of goals is 2.3, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 14.4%. Tobol, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Zhetysu, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 86.0%, Under 3.5 goals at 80.1% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 79.3%, Under 10.5 corners at 77.8% and Under 5.5 cards at 74.9%. The match remains open, with no single result clearly dominating beyond the home win pick.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows FK Tobol Kostanay coming off a defeat, while Zhetysu are still after three straight losses. The model’s favourite was a Home win with a 41% probability, and the final score of 1-0 confirmed that call. The expected total of 2.3 goals fell short, but the model’s selection of Under 3.5, with an 80.1% probability, hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 had a 14.4% chance, yet the actual 1-0 result was a clean win for the home side. All suggested picks settled as indicated, and the model’s prediction was correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.29
0.93
1.19
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.00
1.56
0.78
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.30
0.93
1.50
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.50
1.00
1.60
1.14
1.43
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.17
0.89
1.44
1.11
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0 ✓
11.5%
0-0
11.4%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.3%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Zhetysu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.0%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.1%
8.3%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Zhetysu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
1.96
FC Astana
1.92
Aktobe
1.79
Ordabasy
1.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.62
Yelimay Semey
1.54
Atyrau
1.46
Kaisar
1.42
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Zhenys
1.00
Zhetysu
0.96
Turan Turkistan
0.83
Shakhter Karagandy
0.42
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.67 points better than Zhetysu in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
1.62
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Aktobe
1.62
Ordabasy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.46
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.38
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Atyrau
1.17
Kaisar
1.17
Zhenys
0.75
Zhetysu
0.71
Turan Turkistan
0.67
Shakhter Karagandy
0.50
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.67 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.79
Atyrau
0.83
Kairat Almaty
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.08
Aktobe
1.08
Kaisar
1.21
Yelimay Semey
1.33
Zhenys
1.33
Zhetysu
1.38
Turan Turkistan
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy
1.88
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.42 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 5.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 14.4 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zhetysu
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
11.0
8.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
31.1
29.5
33.3
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
14.0
8.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
28.0
29.0
27.0
vs Similar (25)
9.2
10.0
8.3
1.7
1.6
1.8
32.4
29.7
36.5
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.5
0.4
0.5
-
-
-
% over line
38%
75%
0%
20%
21%
19%
86%
75%
100%
% under line
62%
25%
100%
80%
79%
81%
14%
25%
0%
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.5
5.0
0.9
0.8
0.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
6.0
6.5
5.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
14%
12%
16%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
86%
88%
84%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.4
FC Astana
8.9
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.4
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
3.8
FC Astana
3.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.9
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.0%
Under 9.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.0%
Under 3.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.65
0.78
0.44
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.27
0.25
0.50
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.60
0.40
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.72
0.44
1.00
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.71
0.50
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.50
0.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.75
0.40
1.20
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay's squad is €6m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€9m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's attack is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay's midfield is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's defence is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€4m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kairat Almaty
FC Astana
Aktobe
Ordabasy
Yelimay Semey
Atyrau
Kaisar
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Turan Turkistan
Shakhter Karagandy
FK Aksu