FK Tobol Kostanay are the clear favourites, their home form showing 1.62 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Zhetysu’s away record is 0.29 scored and 2.29 conceded against stronger teams. The model assigns a 64% chance to a home win, 25% to a draw and 11% to an away win, making the home win the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline 1-0 at 15.8%. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 at 79.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.0% and Over 2.5 cards at 75.7%. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 64%, 25% and 11% respectively. The recent form notes that Tobol are coming off a defeat and Zhetysu are after three straight losses, underscoring the home side’s advantage in this encounter.
Results analysis
The updated form shows FK Tobol Kostanay coming off a defeat yet still on a winning streak, while Zhetysu struggles after three straight losses. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct as Tobol edged Zhetysu 2-1. The prediction of a 2-0 or 1-0 result was close, but the actual 2-1 score kept the win in line with the model’s 64% probability. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit with a 79.2% chance, matching the 2-1 total. All probabilities and outcomes are reported exactly as provided, confirming the model’s accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
64.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.50
0.43
1.62
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.06
1.33
0.33
1.67
1.42
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
1.00
1.62
0.50
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.47
0.80
1.40
0.47
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
2.00
1.14
1.71
0.29
2.29
vs Similar (16)
0.56
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.8%
Under 1.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.0%
No
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.8%
2-0
14.7%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
10.7%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.7%
FK Tobol Kostanay goals ↓
Zhetysu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
4.7%
1.7%
0.3%
0.1%
1
16%
11%
3.0%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
8.7%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
8.5%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
4
3.7%
2.2%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (down), columns = Zhetysu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Turan Turkistan
0.62
FK Tobol Kostanay is 1.15 points better than Zhetysu in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Turan Turkistan
0.96
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.92 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Turan Turkistan
2.23
FK Tobol Kostanay is 0.62 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 2.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zhetysu
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
5.0
12.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
26.5
27.0
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
8.5
5.0
12.0
0.5
0.6
0.5
26.5
27.0
26.0
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.5
0.2
0.7
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
6%
4%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
94%
96%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.6
0.5
0.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (24)
-
-
-
1.2
1.1
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
10%
9%
11%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
90%
91%
89%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
FC Astana
3.9
Kairat Almaty
3.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.79
0.21
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.39
0.67
0.00
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.67
0.88
0.38
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.90
0.40
0.87
0.07
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.50
0.57
1.14
0.14
1.86
vs Similar (16)
0.12
0.38
0.25
0.62
0.00
0.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.71
0.21
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.33
0.75
0.12
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.40
0.53
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.43
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
FK Tobol Kostanay's squad is €6m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€9m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's attack is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
FK Tobol Kostanay's midfield is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
FK Tobol Kostanay's defence is €2m more valuable than Zhetysu's (€4m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kairat Almaty
FC Astana
Yelimay Semey
Aktobe
Zhenys
Ordabasy
Okzhetpes
Kyzyl-Zhar
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Turan Turkistan