FK Vozdovac is set to host Grafičar in the Serbia: Prva Liga, with the home side boasting a strong defensive record at home, conceding no goals on average. However, the storyline of late is not in their favour, having suffered two consecutive defeats. Grafičar, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring just 0.55 goals on average against stronger opponents.
The model favours FK Vozdovac to win at home, with a 46% probability of victory, while the draw is 32% likely and an away win for Grafičar is 22% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-0, with a 15.2% probability.
At home, FK Vozdovac scores 3.0 goals on average, while Grafičar concedes 0.82 goals away from home. The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 85.4%. The home side has a 46% chance of winning, a 32% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals has a 85.4% chance of occurring.
Results analysis
FK Vozdovac's recent struggles continued as they suffered a 0-1 defeat to Grafičar, extending their run of three straight losses. This marked a surprise upset, as the home side had been expected to win. In fact, FK Vozdovac were the pre-match favourite, with a 46% probability of winning, but the model's selection was incorrect. The model had actually picked a home win, while Grafičar's away win was the actual result. The model's selection was wrong. The suggested picks did offer some insight, with 'Under 3.5' the model's selection at 85.4% probability, which hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Vozdovac win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.85
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.94
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.11
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Grafičar win✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.05
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.33
Betano
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Vozdovac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.90
1.33
0.67
1.60
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.47
0.90
1.33
0.67
1.60
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.83
1.44
0.81
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.00
1.25
0.88
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.71
1.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Vozdovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.39-4.4%
Under 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.64+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.59
1xBet
2.59
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.7%
@ 2.29-7.4%
Under 2.5
67.3%
@ 1.53+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.27
Under
Unibet
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
BetVictor
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.6%
@ 4.33-6.5%
Under 3.5
85.4%
@ 1.15+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.6%
@ 2.05-5.3%
No
60.4%
@ 1.67+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
No
Unibet
1.73
1xBet
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%@ 5.19+7.1%
0-0
14.6%@ 6.85+8.5%
1-1
14.1%@ 6.08+7.2%
2-0
10.2%@ 7.42+4.5%
0-1 ✓
9.1%@ 8.92+4.3%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.25+2.8%
1-2
5.0%@ 13.33+1.8%
3-0
4.2%@ 14.00+1.2%
FK Vozdovac goals ↓
Grafičar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.1%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.0%
1.3%
0.3%
2
10%
7.9%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
3
4.2%
3.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Vozdovac goals (down), columns = Grafičar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
FK Vozdovac is 0.50 points better than Grafičar in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
FK Vozdovac is 0.17 goals worse than Grafičar in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
FK Vozdovac is 0.83 goals better than Grafičar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Vozdovac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.62
0.31
0.14
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.31
0.62
0.12
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
0.35
0.35
0.62
0.50
0.11
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Vozdovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Vozdovac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Vozdovac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Vozdovac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Vozdovac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.60
0.27
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.43
0.60
0.27
0.93
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.81
0.50
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.69
0.62
0.75
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.35
1.00
0.25
0.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Vozdovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Vozdovac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Vozdovac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Vozdovac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.4%
1.15
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Vozdovac · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Borisav Burmaz53%
Junior Flemmings36%
Bogdan Jočić17%
Mihajlo Nešković15%
Mateja Bubanj14%
Rodrigo Vilca12%
Filip Antonijević10%
Milan Kolarević9%
Vladimir Miletić8%
Bogdan Vastsuk7%
Nikola Savić7%
Danilo Teodorović7%
Nikša Vujanović7%
Matija Mitrović3%
Vukašin Đurđević3%
Predrag Medić0%
Lazar Kojić0%
Lazar Pavlović0%
Andrija Katić0%
Aleksa Matić0%
Aleksandar Lukić0%
Dragan Stoisavljević0%
Nikola Đuričić0%
Vlada Novevski0%
Filip Damjanović0%
Marko Gudzulić0%
Stefan Pirgić0%
Miljan Krpić0%
Nikola Zečević0%
Bogdan Petrović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Lukić38%
Lazar Pavlović33%
Aleksa Matić33%
Bogdan Jočić28%
Milan Kolarević27%
Filip Damjanović27%
Lazar Kojić25%
Nikola Đuričić24%
Stefan Pirgić23%
Miljan Krpić23%
Bogdan Vastsuk21%
Danilo Teodorović21%
Nikola Zečević19%
Matija Mitrović17%
Vukašin Đurđević16%
Vladimir Miletić15%
Marko Gudzulić12%
Borisav Burmaz12%
Andrija Katić10%
Mihajlo Nešković9%
Junior Flemmings7%
Rodrigo Vilca6%
Nikša Vujanović3%
Predrag Medić0%
Filip Antonijević0%
Nikola Savić0%
Dragan Stoisavljević0%
Vlada Novevski0%
Mateja Bubanj0%
Bogdan Petrović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mihajlo Nešković18%
Bogdan Jočić17%
Mateja Bubanj14%
Matija Mitrović10%
Miljan Krpić8%
Bogdan Petrović8%
Nikola Savić7%
Lazar Kojić6%
Vukašin Đurđević6%
Nikola Zečević6%
Nikola Đuričić6%
Filip Antonijević5%
Junior Flemmings4%
Andrija Katić3%
Nikša Vujanović3%
Bogdan Vastsuk0%
Rodrigo Vilca0%
Predrag Medić0%
Lazar Pavlović0%
Borisav Burmaz0%
Aleksa Matić0%
Vladimir Miletić0%
Aleksandar Lukić0%
Dragan Stoisavljević0%
Vlada Novevski0%
Filip Damjanović0%
Marko Gudzulić0%
Stefan Pirgić0%
Danilo Teodorović0%
Milan Kolarević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Borisav Burmaz24%
Junior Flemmings21%
Mihajlo Nešković18%
Nikša Vujanović13%
Bogdan Jočić11%
Stefan Pirgić8%
Bogdan Petrović8%
Filip Damjanović7%
Filip Antonijević5%
Danilo Teodorović3%
Matija Mitrović3%
Bogdan Vastsuk0%
Rodrigo Vilca0%
Predrag Medić0%
Lazar Kojić0%
Lazar Pavlović0%
Andrija Katić0%
Aleksa Matić0%
Vladimir Miletić0%
Aleksandar Lukić0%
Nikola Savić0%
Dragan Stoisavljević0%
Nikola Đuričić0%
Vlada Novevski0%
Marko Gudzulić0%
Vukašin Đurđević0%
Mateja Bubanj0%
Miljan Krpić0%
Nikola Zečević0%
Milan Kolarević0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
FK Vozdovac and Grafičar have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
FK Vozdovac and Grafičar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
FK Vozdovac and Grafičar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
FK Vozdovac and Grafičar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub