Flamurtari enters the match as the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 66 % chance of a home win and a 21 % chance of a draw, leaving only 12 % for Burreli to triumph. The prediction hinges on Flamurtari’s solid home form and Burreli’s struggles away, where they average two goals conceded and none scored against stronger opposition. The expected total goals is 2.9, yet the most probable total is two, reflecting a modest scoring outlook. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.9 % probability, underscoring Flamurtari’s advantage.
The model’s suggested picks cover a range of outcomes: Away under 3.5 goals (99 %), Under 7.5 (99 %), Under 6.5 (97 %), Home +2 handicap (96 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95 %), Under 5.5 (92.3 %), Home over 0.5 goals (87.9 %), and Home or Draw (87.6 %). These selections highlight the expectation of a low-scoring, home-dominated affair. Flamurtari’s recent form, after a 0-2 loss to Vllaznia Shkodër, shows resilience, while Burreli, coming off a 4-4 draw with Apolonia Fier, still struggles to convert away fixtures into points. The model’s probabilities and picks collectively point to a comfortable Flamurtari victory with limited goal output.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flamurtari win
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burreli win
12.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flamurtari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burreli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.40
0.69
0.81
1.00
2.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.12
0.80
1.60
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.14
0.64
0.45
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0
10.4%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
4-0
4.4%
Flamurtari goals ↓
Burreli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
3.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
10%
10%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.4%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.4%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flamurtari goals (down), columns = Burreli goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Flamurtari is 0.10 points better than Burreli in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Flamurtari is 0.29 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Flamurtari is 0.13 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flamurtari or Draw
87.5%
Avg Implied -
66%
21%
12%
covers Flamurtari + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari or Burreli
78.7%
Avg Implied -
66%
21%
12%
covers Flamurtari + Burreli
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Burreli
33.7%
Avg Implied -
66%
21%
12%
covers Draw + Burreli
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
Under
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 3.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flamurtari, so a minus line means Flamurtari give that many goals of a start and Burreli receive them. At -1, Flamurtari must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flamurtari win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flamurtari)
Flamurtari -2
22.5%
Draw -2
20.4%
Burreli +2
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flamurtari)
Flamurtari -1
43.0%
Draw -1
23.3%
Burreli +1
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flamurtari)
Flamurtari +1
87.5%
Draw +1
8.5%
Burreli -1
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flamurtari)
Flamurtari +2
96.0%
Draw +2
3.1%
Burreli -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flamurtari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burreli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.19
0.38
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.23
0.18
0.09
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.4%
Under 0.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.1%
Under 1.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HT
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HT
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flamurtari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burreli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.50
0.44
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.60
0.60
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.91
0.45
0.36
0.73
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.5%
Under 0.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.0%
Under 1.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.2%
Under 2.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2H
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2H
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
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Korabi Peshkopi
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Pogradeci
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë