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Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

Date: 07/05/2023
Time: 11:30
Final 3-1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Vs
56%
27%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Flora Tallinn’s recent form, highlighted by a 1-2 loss to Paide after two straight defeats, still gives them the edge, with a 56% chance of victory, 27% for a draw, and 16% for Kalju Nomme. The model predicts a modest 2.4-goal average, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Flora with a 13.9% probability. At home Flora averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similarly-matched opponents, while Kalju Nomme, on the road, averages just 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Under 3.5 with a 78.6% chance, noting that the edge is 78.6%. The predicted outcome is a home win, and the expected total goals of 2.4 suggests a tightly contested match. All probabilities are presented as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its exact probability.

Results analysis

After a rough start, Flora Tallinn’s recent form has finally begun to turn around, with the win extending their run after two straight defeats. The match finished 3-1, a home win that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite was a home win with a 56% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, given a 78.6% probability, which missed as the total goals reached three. All figures are reported exactly as provided, with no additional commentary.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora Tallinn win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W50W20W11D41W40W22D02L31W30WH·LAA03/03H·TRA14/03A·TAL18/03H·TAM01/04A·KUR08/04H·VAP16/04A·KAL19/04H·FC 23/04A·PAI29/04A·TAM03/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.530.732.200.532.870.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.561.001.250.751.801.20
vs Weaker (21)2.950.622.550.453.400.80
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D21W20W11D20W22D02L01L12LA·TAL04/03A·VAP16/03A·LAA19/03H·TRA01/04H·PAI09/04A·TAM16/04H·FLO19/04A·KUR23/04H·FC 29/04H·TAL02/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.871.710.861.120.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.671.220.831.170.331.33
vs Weaker (21)1.710.712.380.621.310.77
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.1%
Under 2.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.9%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
12.1%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
3-1 ✓
4.9%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
01234
011%6.0%2.7%0.7%0.1%
114%13%4.4%1.1%0.2%
212%9.2%3.5%0.9%0.2%
36.5%4.9%1.9%0.5%0.1%
42.6%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.83 points better than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.67 goals better than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Flora Tallinn is 0.50 goals better than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W20W00D01L31W40W02L00D20W30WH·LAA03/03H·TRA14/03A·TAL18/03H·TAM01/04A·KUR08/04H·VAP16/04A·KAL19/04H·FC 23/04A·PAI29/04A·TAM03/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.271.130.271.400.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.250.250.800.60
vs Weaker (21)1.570.191.450.271.700.10
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D20W00D10W20W01L00D00DA·TAL04/03A·VAP16/03A·LAA19/03H·TRA01/04H·PAI09/04A·TAM16/04H·FLO19/04A·KUR23/04H·FC 29/04H·TAL02/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.230.930.210.690.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.110.670.000.000.33
vs Weaker (21)0.950.291.120.380.850.23
Clean sheet %80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W20W10W10W00D20W02L11D00DH·LAA03/03H·TRA14/03A·TAL18/03H·TAM01/04A·KUR08/04H·VAP16/04A·KAL19/04H·FC 23/04A·PAI29/04A·TAM03/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.471.070.271.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.000.561.000.501.000.60
vs Weaker (21)1.380.431.090.181.700.70
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W00D11D10W02L01L01L12LA·TAL04/03A·VAP16/03A·LAA19/03H·TRA01/04H·PAI09/04A·TAM16/04H·FLO19/04A·KUR23/04H·FC 29/04H·TAL02/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.790.640.440.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.221.110.171.170.331.00
vs Weaker (21)0.760.431.250.250.460.54
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn's squad is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€3m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
FT wins
1
Draws
1
KN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/23AKalju Nomme Vs FT2-2
16/10/22AKalju Nomme Vs FT1-0
31/08/22HFT Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
19/06/22HFT Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
19/03/22AKalju Nomme Vs FT1-2

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/23ATammeka Vs FT0-3
29/04/23APaide Vs FT1-3
23/04/23HFT Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-2
19/04/23AKalju Nomme Vs FT2-2
16/04/23HFT Vs Vaprus4-0
08/04/23AKuressaare Vs FT1-4
01/04/23HFT Vs Tammeka1-1
18/03/23ATallinna Kalev Vs FT0-2
14/03/23HFT Vs Trans Narva5-0
03/03/23HFT Vs Laagri4-0

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/23HKN Vs Tallinna Kalev1-2
29/04/23HKN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
23/04/23AKuressaare Vs KN2-0
19/04/23HKN Vs Flora Tallinn2-2
16/04/23ATammeka Vs KN0-2
09/04/23HKN Vs Paide1-1
01/04/23HKN Vs Trans Narva2-0
19/03/23ALaagri Vs KN1-2
16/03/23AVaprus Vs KN1-1
04/03/23ATallinna Kalev Vs KN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW2.56
HomeWWDWL2.62
AwayWWDWW2.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %81%83%79%
AVG goals3.253.003.50
Over 1.5 %83%79%88%
Over 2.5 %58%46%71%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored2.602.502.71
Conceded0.650.500.79
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet50%58%42%
Corners12.508.0017.00
Cards6.507.006.00
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.70
HomeWDDLL1.87
AwayDDWWL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%57%39%
AVG goals2.392.522.26
Over 1.5 %76%74%78%
Over 2.5 %43%48%39%
Over 3.5 %15%22%9%
Scored1.521.781.26
Conceded0.870.741.00
BTTS43%43%43%
Clean Sheet39%43%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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