Flora Tallinn are tipped to win, with a 61% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 14% for Kalju Nomme to come away with a victory. The match is expected to see about 2.5 goals, most likely a 1-0 scoreline for the hosts, which carries a 13.1% probability. Flora’s home form shows they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similarly ranked opposition, while Kalju Nomme, playing away, averages 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include an 75% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 73% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The home win probability is 61%, the draw probability 25%, and the away win probability 14%. The model’s pick remains a Flora Tallinn victory, supported by their stronger home performance and the recent 1-2 loss to Paide that has left them looking for a win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Flora Tallinn, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s 61% probability for a victory. The model’s prediction was wrong. The under 3.5 goals pick hit, with a 75% chance, while the over 1.5 goals selection missed, despite its 73% probability. Flora’s recent form, after two straight defeats, saw a win in the last five, yet they could not break the deadlock. Kalju Nomme, also coming off two defeats, finished level. The final score of 0-0 confirms the draw, contradicting the model’s favourite call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora Tallinn win✗ Miss
60.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
1.79
1.00
1.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.25
1.17
1.50
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.28
0.61
2.25
0.62
2.30
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.88
1.19
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.90
1.80
1.80
0.40
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.65
1.00
1.91
0.91
1.33
1.11
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.1%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0 ✓
9.0%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
4.9%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
4.9%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
7.5%
5.6%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.3%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.83 points better than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.67 goals better than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Flora Tallinn is 0.50 goals better than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.64
0.57
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.83
0.00
0.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.33
0.88
0.38
1.30
0.30
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.38
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
1.20
0.60
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.40
0.91
0.27
0.78
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.14
0.43
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.83
0.67
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.28
1.38
0.25
1.00
0.30
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.88
0.81
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.60
1.20
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.64
0.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn's squad is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Paide
Tallinna Kalev
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Tammeka
Laagri
Viimsi