Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

Flora Tallinn are tipped to win, the model picking a home victory as the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see about 2.7 goals, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Flora’s home form shows they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded against similar opposition, while Kalju Nomme, playing away, average 0.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s home win probability is 43%, the draw 28%, and the away win 29%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 75.9% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.9%. The last five matches for Flora were LLWLL, with a 1-2 loss to Paide, while Kalju’s last five were LLWWW, ending with a 2-3 defeat to FC Levadia Tallinn. These recent setbacks hint at a cautious start, but Flora’s advantage at home keeps them ahead.

The surprise came early: the pre-match favourite, Flora Tallinn, was expected to win with a 43% probability, but the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, extending Flora’s recent form note of two straight defeats before a win. The model’s selection of “Over 1.5” goals hit, with a 75.9% probability, while “Under 3.5” missed at 71.9%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.4%, yet the game produced a 2-2 draw, showing that even the most probable outcomes can be overturned.