Flora Tallinn is the clear favourite to win this match, with a predicted win probability of 70%. The model rates them highly due to their strong home form against weaker opponents, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding just 0.83 goals per match. Kuressaare, on the other hand, have struggled on the road against stronger teams, scoring only 0.7 goals and conceding 2.0 goals per match.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.0, with the most likely score being 2-0 in favour of Flora Tallinn, with a probability of 12.6%. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 80.3%.
Flora Tallinn's home win percentage is 70%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 10%. The model's selection, the Over 1.5 goals, has a probability of 80.3%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Kuressaare's away win extends their run of consecutive victories, with a 2-3 final score. The model's selection of Home win, with a 70% pre-match probability, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the favourites failed to come through.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.3% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 24% probability. The most likely scores were 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1, each with a probability of 12.6%, 10.6%, and 9.5% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora Tallinn win✗ Miss
69.6%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Dafabet
1.35
SBO
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 4.82
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Pinnacle
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Kuressaare win✓ Hit
10.5%
Avg Implied 12.9% · @ 6.99
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.80
888Sport
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
William Hil
7.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.03
2.81
0.94
2.07
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
2.38
1.69
3.17
1.67
1.71
1.71
vs Weaker (17)
2.53
0.53
2.60
0.50
2.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.20
1.47
1.67
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.62
1.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.33
1.33
1.50
2.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.10-2.2%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 5.19+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Under
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
888Sport
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.41-7.8%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 2.57+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.80
888Sport
2.63
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
@ 2.06-10.2%
Under 3.5
65.7%
@ 1.65+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
@ 1.67-6.6%
No
52.0%
@ 2.01+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
No
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%@ 7.19+6.7%
1-0
10.6%@ 8.36+5.5%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.51+3.9%
1-1
9.5%@ 8.95+4.8%
3-0
9.3%@ 8.50+4.3%
3-1
7.0%@ 9.26+2.4%
0-0
6.1%@ 17.02+3.6%
4-0
5.1%@ 12.74+1.8%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
3.1%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
11%
9.5%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.3%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
5.1%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Flora Tallinn is 0.78 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Flora Tallinn is 0.67 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.11 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora Tallinn or Draw✗ Miss
89.5%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
10%
covers Flora Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn or Kuressaare✓ Hit
80.1%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
10%
covers Flora Tallinn + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kuressaare✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
10%
covers Draw + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
1.19
0.38
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.85
1.50
0.50
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.29
1.00
0.30
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.40
0.93
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
0.86
0.12
0.88
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.33
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.50
1.62
0.56
1.07
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.85
1.67
1.17
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.24
1.60
0.20
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.50
0.62
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.22
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home or Draw
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Flora Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United