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Flora Tallinn vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Vs
64%
20%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Flora Tallinn is the clear favourite to win against Laagri, with a 64% chance of taking the three points. The model rates them highly due to Laagri's poor away form, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. The home side's recent form is a concern, having lost their last match, but they have a strong home record, scoring 1.67 goals per game and conceding just 1.

The expected total goals is 3.4, with the most likely total goals being 3. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 64% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9.7% probability.

Flora Tallinn's home scoring and conceding statistics are impressive, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. Laagri's away scoring and conceding statistics are less impressive, with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 2 conceded per match against similar opponents.

The model's selection is a Home win, with a 64% probability. Other selections include Over 1.5, with an 86.5% probability and a 3% edge. The home win percentage is 64%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 16%.

Results analysis

The win extends Flora Tallinn's recent form storyline, despite coming off a defeat. The final score of 1-0 was a far cry from the expected total of 3.4 goals, with the actual total being significantly lower. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 64%. The model's call was a shrewd one, given the pre-match favourite's recent form. The model's selection, Flora Tallinn, was the favourite, and its call paid off. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed, with a probability of 86.5%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora Tallinn win✓ Hit
64.1%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.66
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Dafabet
1.68
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.02
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.26
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Laagri win✗ Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 3.96
Edge
-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
4.55
Dafabet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L21W60W40W11D20W30W21W30W12LA·KAL28/09A·LAA04/10H·TAL18/10H·TRA21/10A·PAI26/10H·KUR01/11A·VAP08/11A·FC 28/06A·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.002.360.932.061.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.671.331.331.002.001.67
vs Weaker (24)2.330.922.640.912.080.92
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L12L13L22D10W41W22D12L30W52WH·VAP27/09H·FLO04/10H·KAL19/10H·TAM22/10H·TRA25/10H·TAL02/11H·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.801.751.501.362.14
vs Stronger (13)1.312.081.752.000.602.20
vs Similar (4)2.251.252.000.002.502.50
vs Weaker (13)1.621.691.671.331.572.00
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.5%
@ 1.10+3.0%
Under 1.5
13.5%
@ 5.56-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.41+1.2%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 2.66-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
888Sport
2.70
10Bet
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.8%
@ 2.05-0.4%
Under 3.5
55.2%
@ 1.69+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.44-2.8%
No
39.0%
@ 2.54+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.49
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
888Sport
1.44
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.54
William Hil
2.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%@ 7.41+4.0%
1-1
9.1%@ 7.68+3.6%
2-0
8.8%@ 9.30+4.3%
3-1
7.5%@ 10.04+3.3%
3-0
6.9%@ 12.67+3.5%
1-0 ✓
6.7%@ 9.76+2.4%
2-2
5.3%@ 10.78+1.4%
1-2
4.6%@ 12.05+1.0%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
04.1%2.7%2.0%0.7%0.2%
16.7%9.1%4.6%1.7%0.5%
28.8%9.7%5.3%1.9%0.5%
36.9%7.5%4.1%1.5%0.4%
44.0%4.4%2.4%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.17
Nõmme United
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Laagri
1.00
Flora Tallinn is 0.80 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Kalju Nomme
2.33
Laagri
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Vaprus
1.67
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.25
Nõmme United
1.17
Kuressaare
1.14
Trans Narva
1.00
Flora Tallinn is 0.20 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.20
Paide
1.60
Laagri
1.67
Kuressaare
1.71
Vaprus
1.83
Trans Narva
2.14
Nõmme United
2.33
Tammeka
2.75
Flora Tallinn is 0.47 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W40W10W01L10W20W01L10W02LA·KAL28/09A·LAA04/10H·TAL18/10H·TRA21/10A·PAI26/10H·KUR01/11A·VAP08/11A·FC 28/06A·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.531.070.430.880.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (24)0.960.541.090.550.850.54
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L10W20W10W10W01L12L20W51WH·VAP27/09H·FLO04/10H·KAL19/10H·TAM22/10H·TRA25/10H·TAL02/11H·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.001.000.620.641.43
vs Stronger (13)0.691.001.000.880.201.20
vs Similar (4)1.250.751.500.001.001.50
vs Weaker (13)0.851.080.830.500.861.57
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.5%1.10
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+3.0%✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (21)
€3m
FT (20)
€3m
PAI (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€1m
PAI (8)
€1m
KN (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAI (5)
€1m
KN (2)
€1m
FT (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
PAI (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
8
FT wins
0
Draws
0
LAA wins

Head-to-head

Flora Tallinn vs Laagri · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/25ALaagri Vs FT1-2
16/08/25HFT Vs Laagri3-1
09/05/25ALaagri Vs FT0-3
22/04/25HFT Vs Laagri4-1
22/10/23ALaagri Vs FT2-3
25/08/23HFT Vs Laagri2-0
19/05/23ALaagri Vs FT0-1
03/03/23HFT Vs Laagri4-0

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/26HFT Vs Nõmme United1-2
02/07/26AKuressaare Vs FT0-3
28/06/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs FT1-2
08/11/25AVaprus Vs FT0-3
01/11/25HFT Vs Kuressaare2-0
26/10/25APaide Vs FT1-1
21/10/25HFT Vs Trans Narva4-0
18/10/25HFT Vs Tallinna Kalev6-0
04/10/25ALaagri Vs FT1-2
28/09/25AKalju Nomme Vs FT3-1

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26HLAA Vs Paide5-2
10/07/26HLAA Vs Trans Narva3-0
05/07/26ATammeka Vs LAA2-1
08/11/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-2
02/11/25HLAA Vs Tallinna Kalev4-1
25/10/25HLAA Vs Trans Narva1-0
22/10/25HLAA Vs Tammeka2-2
19/10/25HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-3
04/10/25HLAA Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
27/09/25HLAA Vs Vaprus1-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL2.12
HomeLWWWL2.20
AwayWDWWW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%72%64%
AVG goals3.323.483.16
Over 1.5 %90%84%96%
Over 2.5 %84%80%88%
Over 3.5 %38%48%28%
Scored2.282.522.04
Conceded1.040.961.12
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.30
HomeWWDWW1.52
AwayWLLWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals3.563.363.76
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %78%72%84%
Over 3.5 %48%40%56%
Scored1.842.001.68
Conceded1.721.362.08
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet18%28%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kalju NommeKalju Nomme614
67%
2.3
144+10
3.0
83%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.30.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn613
67%
2.2
165+11
3.5
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.8
-
3Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn59
60%
1.8
96+3
3.0
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.81.2
-
4PaidePaide58
40%
1.6
88+0
3.2
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.6
-
5VaprusVaprus67
33%
1.2
1011-1
3.5
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
6KuressaareKuressaare77
29%
1.0
812-4
2.9
57%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva77
29%
1.0
715-8
3.1
100%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
8LaagriLaagri66
33%
1.0
1210+2
3.7
83%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
9TammekaTammeka46
50%
1.5
511-6
4.0
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.8
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United66
33%
1.0
714-7
3.5
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.3
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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