Flora Tallinn is the clear favourite to win against Nõmme United, with a 64% chance of taking home the three points. This confidence stems from their strong home form, where they average 2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game against similar opponents. In contrast, Nõmme United have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 2.29 goals but conceding 1.29.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3. The most likely scoreline is a 2-1 win for Flora Tallinn, with a 9.9% probability. The home win percentage is 64%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a probability of 64%. Additionally, the model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 83.9%, and this selection has a high hit rate.
Results analysis
The upset of the day comes from Estonia's Meistriliiga, where Nõmme United stunned the pre-match favourite Flora Tallinn with a 1-2 away win. This extends Flora Tallinn's home woes, following a defeat in their previous match. The win extends their run of coming off a defeat. The actual result was far from the most likely outcome, with the model predicting a home win. However, the model's selection was incorrect. The model's selection of home win had a 64% probability of occurring. The model's call was wrong. On the other hand, the model's suggested selection of Over 1.5 hit, with an 83.9% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora Tallinn win✗ Miss
63.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United win✓ Hit
15.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.93
2.46
0.85
2.12
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.64
1.20
1.40
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (19)
2.84
0.53
3.25
0.50
2.55
0.55
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
3.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.77
0.87
3.88
0.82
3.62
0.92
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
3.68
0.86
3.85
0.77
3.44
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
6.00
1.00
5.00
1.33
7.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.9%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.2%
3-0
7.2%
2-2
5.0%
0-0
4.9%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.2%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.0%
9.9%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
2
9.8%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.2%
7.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Paide
1.83
Tammeka
1.80
Laagri
1.29
Vaprus
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Kuressaare
0.88
Nõmme United
0.86
Flora Tallinn is 1.14 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.86
Flora Tallinn
1.83
Vaprus
1.57
Tammeka
1.20
Nõmme United
1.14
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Flora Tallinn is 0.69 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.71
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.17
Laagri
1.43
Paide
1.50
Kuressaare
1.62
Vaprus
1.86
Trans Narva
2.14
Tammeka
2.20
Nõmme United
2.57
Flora Tallinn is 1.40 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.15
0.31
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
1.00
0.60
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (19)
1.21
0.21
1.25
0.12
1.18
0.27
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.43
2.18
0.59
1.85
0.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
2.05
0.45
2.15
0.62
1.89
0.22
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.40
3.00
0.67
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.47
1.31
0.54
1.18
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.73
0.20
0.80
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.32
2.00
0.38
1.36
0.27
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.43
1.71
0.24
1.77
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.64
0.41
1.69
0.15
1.56
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.60
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
Paide
Laagri
Tammeka
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva