Flora Tallinn’s recent home form, highlighted by a 2-game winning streak after two straight defeats, gives the model a clear edge, especially against Tammeka’s weaker home advantage. The prediction model rates a home win at 67%, a draw 19%, and an away win 14%, making a home victory the single most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 3.7, with the most probable scoreline 2-1 for Flora, a 9.3% chance. Flora averages 2.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home versus weaker opposition, while Tammeka, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.67 goals scored and concedes 3.33. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 7.5 (96.7%), Home +2 handicap (94.6%), Under 6.5 (92.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (92.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%), Over 1.5 (88.7%) and Home or Draw (85.8%). The model’s home win probability remains the highest, reflecting Flora’s dominance at home and Tammeka’s struggles away.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora Tallinn win
67.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.17
2.88
1.18
2.23
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.73
1.73
3.60
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.53
0.84
2.58
0.83
2.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
2.00
3.29
1.21
1.50
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.67
1.40
1.80
0.71
3.29
vs Similar (18)
3.22
1.56
4.33
0.89
2.11
2.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.3%
Under 2.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.9%
3-1
7.9%
1-1
7.4%
2-0
7.3%
3-0
6.5%
2-2
5.5%
4-1
5.3%
1-0
4.8%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
1.9%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
1
4.8%
7.4%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
2
7.3%
8.9%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
3
6.5%
7.9%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
4
4.3%
5.3%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Flora Tallinn is 0.21 points worse than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Flora Tallinn is 0.15 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.32 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora Tallinn or Draw
85.3%
Avg Implied -
67%
18%
15%
covers Flora Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn or Tammeka
82.0%
Avg Implied -
67%
18%
15%
covers Flora Tallinn + Tammeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tammeka
32.7%
Avg Implied -
67%
18%
15%
covers Draw + Tammeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flora Tallinn, so a minus line means Flora Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Tammeka receive them. At -1, Flora Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn -2
28.0%
Draw -2
19.2%
Tammeka +2
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn -1
47.2%
Draw -1
20.1%
Tammeka +1
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn +1
85.3%
Draw +1
8.9%
Tammeka -1
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn +2
94.2%
Draw +2
4.1%
Tammeka -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.24
0.53
1.08
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.64
1.60
0.40
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.47
1.08
0.58
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.79
0.93
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.83
0.80
1.60
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.94
2.33
0.56
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.63
1.65
0.65
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.09
2.00
1.60
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.37
1.50
0.25
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.50
0.29
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.20
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.61
2.00
0.33
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Flora Tallinn's squad is €1m more valuable than Tammeka's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Tammeka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Tammeka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United