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Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva Result & Analysis

Date: 23/07/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 1-4
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Vs
79%
15%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora Tallinn win✗ Miss
78.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win✓ Hit
5.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W30W00D51W00D30W00D01L03LA·LAA19/05A·TRA23/05H·TAL27/05H·PAI07/06A·VAP10/06A·FC 28/06H·TAM02/07A·PAI07/07A·RAK11/07H·RAK18/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.270.632.290.712.250.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.921.001.001.170.830.83
vs Weaker (18)3.170.393.250.383.100.40
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L21W10W20W03L03L04L02L03LH·KAL20/05H·FLO23/05A·PAI28/05A·TAL07/06H·TAM11/06A·KUR27/06A·FC 01/07H·VAP08/07A·PYU13/07H·PYU20/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.670.571.640.621.69
vs Stronger (15)0.272.070.001.860.502.25
vs Similar (15)0.931.271.141.430.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%013%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.4%
No
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.6%
3-0
12.1%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.6%
1-1
7.3%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.3%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
01234
05.3%2.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%
111%7.3%1.9%0.4%0.1%
215%8.3%2.3%0.4%0.1%
312%6.9%2.0%0.4%0.1%
47.6%4.3%1.2%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Flora Tallinn is 1.14 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Flora Tallinn is 1.17 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Flora Tallinn is 1.11 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W20W00D11D00D10W00D00D00DA·LAA19/05A·TRA23/05H·TAL27/05H·PAI07/06A·VAP10/06A·FC 28/06H·TAM02/07A·PAI07/07A·RAK11/07H·RAK18/07
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.271.210.211.060.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.330.420.330.330.330.50
vs Weaker (18)1.670.171.880.121.500.20
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D10W10W01L01L02L00D02LH·KAL20/05H·FLO23/05A·PAI28/05A·TAL07/06H·TAM11/06A·KUR27/06A·FC 01/07H·VAP08/07A·PYU13/07H·PYU20/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.830.140.860.440.81
vs Stronger (15)0.130.930.001.000.250.88
vs Similar (15)0.470.730.290.710.620.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W00D40W00D20W00D01L03LA·LAA19/05A·TRA23/05H·TAL27/05H·PAI07/06A·VAP10/06A·FC 28/06H·TAM02/07A·PAI07/07A·RAK11/07H·RAK18/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.371.070.501.190.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.580.580.670.830.500.33
vs Weaker (18)1.500.221.380.251.600.20
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W00D10W02L02L02L02L01LH·KAL20/05H·FLO23/05A·PAI28/05A·TAL07/06H·TAM11/06A·KUR27/06A·FC 01/07H·VAP08/07A·PYU13/07H·PYU20/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.830.430.790.190.88
vs Stronger (15)0.131.130.000.860.251.38
vs Similar (15)0.470.530.860.710.120.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit
Home win78.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners73.4%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
5
FT wins
1
Draws
0
TN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/23ATrans Narva Vs FT0-1
14/03/23HFT Vs Trans Narva5-0
17/09/22ATrans Narva Vs FT0-4
13/08/22HFT Vs Trans Narva1-1
25/05/22ATrans Narva Vs FT0-3
03/04/22HFT Vs Trans Narva1-0

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/23HFT Vs Raków Częstochowa0-3
11/07/23ARaków Częstochowa Vs FT1-0
07/07/23APaide Vs FT0-0
02/07/23HFT Vs Tammeka3-0
28/06/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs FT0-0
10/06/23AVaprus Vs FT1-5
07/06/23HFT Vs Paide0-0
27/05/23HFT Vs Tallinna Kalev3-0
23/05/23ATrans Narva Vs FT0-1
19/05/23ALaagri Vs FT0-1

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/23HTN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-3
13/07/23APyunik Yerevan Vs TN2-0
08/07/23HTN Vs Vaprus0-4
01/07/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-0
27/06/23AKuressaare Vs TN3-0
11/06/23HTN Vs Tammeka2-0
07/06/23ATallinna Kalev Vs TN0-1
28/05/23APaide Vs TN1-2
23/05/23HTN Vs Flora Tallinn0-1
20/05/23HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLL2.34
HomeWWDWL2.44
AwayWWDDL2.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %72%76%68%
AVG goals2.942.883.00
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored2.302.282.32
Conceded0.640.600.68
BTTS40%36%44%
Clean Sheet52%56%48%
Corners14.0012.5015.50
Cards4.504.504.50
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.90
HomeLLWLL1.08
AwayWWLLL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals2.622.252.96
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %20%17%23%
Scored0.860.880.85
Conceded1.761.382.12
BTTS36%29%42%
Clean Sheet14%21%8%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards2.002.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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