Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Flora Tallinn are the clear favourites, with a 55% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of an away win. The match is expected to see about 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Flora, playing at home against a weaker side, typically scores 2.22 goals and concedes 1.11, while Vaprus, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 74.9% chance of success and Over 1.5 with a 73.2% chance of failure. The home win probability is 55%, the draw probability 27%, and the away win probability 18%.

The upset came early, with Vaprus snatching a 1-0 win at Flora Tallinn, a result that shocked the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 55% probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 0-1 delivered an away victory, a stark contrast to the 2-goal expectation. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, supported by a 74.9% probability, while its Over 1.5 pick missed, despite a 73.2% chance. Flora’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and Vaprus’s draw-heavy run set the stage for this unexpected outcome. The prediction model’s overall verdict was incorrect.