Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Flora Tallinn are tipped to win, a 60% chance that the Estonian champions will come away with a victory, while a draw sits at 24% and an away win at 16%. The model expects 2.8 goals in total, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance. Flora, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.56 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, whereas Vaprus, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. The model’s selection for the match is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.6% probability. The recent form notes that Flora have won only one of their last five after two straight defeats, while Vaprus have drawn their most recent match. These figures paint a picture of a match where Flora’s attacking prowess and home advantage are expected to outweigh Vaprus’s defensive frailties.

The upset came early: Flora Tallinn, the pre-match favourite with a 60% probability of triumph, fell to a 0-1 defeat, a result that broke their recent run of two straight losses. The model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, given a 77.6% probability, but it missed as the match saw a single goal. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win, a 16% chance in the model’s odds. Flora’s home form had been solid, averaging 2.56 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, yet Vaprus capitalised on their 0.86 average scoring and 1.86 conceded away figures to secure the win.