PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Vs
57%
22%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Flora Tallinn’s recent 2-1 win over Vaprus and their strong home form - scoring an average of 2.7 goals while conceding only 0.8 - set the stage for a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.3 goals. The model picks a home win, with a 59% chance, a 22% draw probability and a 19% away win probability. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.1% probability. Vaprus, playing away against a weaker opponent, averages 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded, suggesting they may struggle to keep the scoreline low. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Home +2 handicap (92.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.1%), Under 5.5 (88.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.2%) and Over 1.5 (84.9%). Each selection’s probability is listed, with no other outcomes mentioned.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora Tallinn win
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W12L10W02L04L23L21W13L12L32WA·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07H·LAA02/08A·INT06/08H·INT13/08H·KUR16/08A·VAP23/08A·TAM26/08H·PAI30/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.601.172.881.182.231.15
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.731.733.602.002.001.50
vs Weaker (19)2.530.842.580.832.430.86
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L51W13L41W11D50W13L12L22D23LA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NÕM02/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.472.501.081.891.72
vs Stronger (18)1.941.672.141.431.821.82
vs Similar (12)2.421.173.000.602.001.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.0%
Under 2.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.4%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
04.1%3.2%2.6%1.1%0.4%
16.0%9.7%5.7%2.4%0.8%
27.5%9.6%6.1%2.6%0.8%
35.4%6.9%4.4%1.9%0.6%
42.9%3.7%2.4%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Flora Tallinn is 0.67 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Flora Tallinn is 0.15 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Flora Tallinn is 0.32 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora Tallinn or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
22%
21%
covers Flora Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn or Vaprus
77.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
22%
21%
covers Flora Tallinn + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vaprus
43.3%
Avg Implied -
57%
22%
21%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Flora Tallinn, so a minus line means Flora Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, Flora Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn -2
18.2%
Draw -2
17.3%
Vaprus +2
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn -1
35.5%
Draw -1
21.2%
Vaprus +1
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn +1
78.8%
Draw +1
12.2%
Vaprus -1
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flora Tallinn)
Flora Tallinn +2
91.0%
Draw +2
6.0%
Vaprus -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L00D01L01L13L20W11D00D21WA·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07H·LAA02/08A·INT06/08H·INT13/08H·KUR16/08A·VAP23/08A·TAM26/08H·PAI30/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.531.240.531.080.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.180.641.600.400.830.83
vs Weaker (19)1.160.471.080.581.290.29
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W02L11D10W30W02L02L11D13LA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NÕM02/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.901.420.751.061.00
vs Stronger (18)1.060.891.141.001.000.82
vs Similar (12)1.420.921.800.401.141.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W01L03L10W01L02L12L11DA·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07H·LAA02/08A·INT06/08H·INT13/08H·KUR16/08A·VAP23/08A·TAM26/08H·PAI30/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.631.650.651.150.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.551.092.001.601.170.67
vs Weaker (19)1.370.371.500.251.140.57
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W11D30W01L20W11D10W11D10WA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NÕM02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.571.080.330.830.72
vs Stronger (18)0.890.781.000.430.821.00
vs Similar (12)1.000.251.200.200.860.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.9%-------
Under 6.593.8%-------
Home +2 handicap91.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals88.6%-------
Over 1.586.8%-------
Under 5.586.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals82.6%-------
Home or Draw78.8%-------
Home +1 handicap78.8%-------
Home or Away77.8%-------
Under 4.573.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
FT wins
0
Draws
2
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/26AVaprus Vs FT1-2
08/11/25AVaprus Vs FT0-3
13/09/25HFT Vs Vaprus3-0
02/05/25AVaprus Vs FT0-3
08/03/25HFT Vs Vaprus0-1
29/09/24HFT Vs Vaprus3-0
23/08/24AVaprus Vs FT0-1
11/05/24HFT Vs Vaprus0-1

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HFT Vs Tammeka3-2
30/08/26HFT Vs Paide1-2
26/08/26ATammeka Vs FT3-1
23/08/26AVaprus Vs FT1-2
16/08/26HFT Vs Kuressaare2-3
13/08/26HFT Vs Inter Club d'Escaldes0-4
06/08/26AInter Club d'Escaldes Vs FT2-0
02/08/26HFT Vs Laagri1-0
17/07/26HFT Vs Nõmme United1-2
02/07/26AKuressaare Vs FT0-3

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26ANõmme United Vs VAP3-2
29/08/26AKuressaare Vs VAP2-2
23/08/26HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
16/08/26AKalju Nomme Vs VAP3-1
12/08/26APhoenix Vs VAP0-5
02/08/26HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-1
21/07/26ATabasalu Ulasabat Vs VAP1-4
18/07/26ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1
11/07/26HVAP Vs Tammeka5-1
04/07/26APaide Vs VAP3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW2.06
HomeWLLLW2.00
AwayWWLWL2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%65%67%
AVG goals3.403.693.08
Over 1.5 %88%81%96%
Over 2.5 %78%73%83%
Over 3.5 %38%50%25%
Scored2.282.542.00
Conceded1.121.151.08
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners11.008.0014.00
Cards4.006.002.00
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.44
HomeWWWDL1.50
AwayWWLDL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals3.543.673.42
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %72%71%73%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored2.102.381.85
Conceded1.441.291.58
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

← all matches