The contest between Florești and Oguzsport is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but no result stands out as a clear favourite. The odds are 41% for Florești, 28% for a draw and 31% for Oguzsport. The expected goal tally sits at 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. Florești, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Oguzsport, away against a weaker opponent, nets 0.67 and concedes 2.33. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.9%), Under 4.5 (86.4%) and Home +2 handicap (86.2%). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and the model’s single most likely result remains a Florești victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floreşti win
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport win
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floreşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.17
2.43
1.07
1.75
1.25
vs Stronger (26)
2.00
1.08
2.33
0.92
1.71
1.21
vs Similar (4)
2.50
1.75
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.57
1.08
1.75
1.19
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
0.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.35
1.00
1.43
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.50
2.25
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Floreşti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
5.5%
Floreşti goals ↓
Oguzsport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.2%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.6%
13%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
8.8%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.4%
4.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floreşti goals (down), columns = Oguzsport goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Floreşti is 1.20 points better than Oguzsport in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Floreşti is 1.78 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals scored per game (2.87 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Floreşti is 0.77 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Floreşti or Draw
68.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Floreşti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floreşti or Oguzsport
71.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Floreşti + Oguzsport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Oguzsport
59.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + Oguzsport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Floreşti over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 1.5
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 2.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Floreşti, so a minus line means Floreşti give that many goals of a start and Oguzsport receive them. At -1, Floreşti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Floreşti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Floreşti)
Floreşti -2
7.6%
Draw -2
12.4%
Oguzsport +2
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Floreşti)
Floreşti -1
20.0%
Draw -1
20.5%
Oguzsport +1
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Floreşti)
Floreşti +1
68.7%
Draw +1
17.5%
Oguzsport -1
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Floreşti)
Floreşti +2
86.2%
Draw +2
9.2%
Oguzsport -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floreşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.93
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (26)
0.85
0.62
1.08
0.58
0.64
0.64
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.89
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Floreşti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floreşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floreşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.50
0.36
1.06
0.56
vs Stronger (26)
1.15
0.46
1.25
0.33
1.07
0.57
vs Similar (4)
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.68
0.58
0.58
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.71
0.43
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Floreşti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floreşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floreşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet