Pythia gives Floriana a 32% win probability against Marsaxlokk in the Malta: Premier League on 2022-12-03, with 36% for the draw and 32% for Marsaxlokk. The model estimates around 1.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (18.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (90%), Under 2.5 (74%).
Results analysis
The match saw Floriana and Marsaxlokk both maintain their recent form, with Floriana unbeaten in five and Marsaxlokk on a two-game winning streak. The final score was 1-1, confirming the draw that the model had picked with a 36% probability. The model’s selection was correct. Its suggested picks also proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with an 89.9% chance, and Under 2.5 goals hit with a 74.3% probability. The most likely scoreline of 0-0 had a 18.7% chance, while 1-1 and 0-1 were close behind at 14.6% and 14.0% respectively, yet the 1-1 result settled the game. The model’s predictions largely came through, underscoring its reliability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floriana win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
0.62
0.83
0.17
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.18
1.27
1.17
1.83
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.50
1.17
1.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
-
-
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.6%
Under 1.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.7%
Under 2.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.1%
Under 3.5
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.4%
No
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.7%
1-1 ✓
14.6%
0-1
14.0%
1-0
13.7%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
Floriana goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
14%
6.8%
2.0%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.9%
1.7%
0.4%
2
6.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
3
1.9%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Floriana is 0.46 points better than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Floriana is 0.08 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Floriana is 0.46 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.00
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
69% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
0.45
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.17
0.57
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.12
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.82
0.50
1.17
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Floriana's squad is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Floriana and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Floriana and Marsaxlokk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Floriana's defence is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamrun Spartans
Birkirkara
Gzira United
Hibernians
Balzan FC
Mosta
Valletta FC
Sirens
Gudja United
Santa Lucía
Zebbug Rangers
Pietà Hotspurs