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Floriana vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-1
Floriana
Floriana
Vs
51%
27%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Floriana win✗ Miss
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L10W20W11D51W25L40W20W20W30WA·BAL05/03H·ZEB11/03A·SAN02/04H·GUD08/04A·MAR14/04H·HIB21/04A·SAN17/09H·BIR23/09H·HIB26/09A·BAL01/10
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.871.130.801.600.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.861.000.750.001.00
vs Weaker (23)1.610.871.180.822.000.92
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W21W21W50W02L05L15L04L11D40WA·MEL05/03A·ZEJ12/03H·TAR31/03A·ZUR08/04H·SLI15/04H·MEL22/04A·MAR15/09H·HAM23/09A·GZI26/09H·SAN01/10← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.201.601.332.601.07
vs Stronger (3)0.333.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (21)2.141.001.821.002.501.00
vs Weaker (6)2.831.002.001.503.250.75
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.0%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
Floriana goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
07.8%5.7%3.6%1.2%0.3%
19.9%13%6.0%2.1%0.5%
29.3%9.7%5.0%1.7%0.5%
35.2%5.4%2.8%1.0%0.3%
42.2%2.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Floriana is 0.85 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.35).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Floriana is 0.81 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (2.04 vs 1.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Floriana is 0.62 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.35).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D00D10W40W12L20W00D10W00DA·BAL05/03H·ZEB11/03A·SAN02/04H·GUD08/04A·MAR14/04H·HIB21/04A·SAN17/09H·BIR23/09H·HIB26/09A·BAL01/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.470.270.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.000.140.000.000.000.33
vs Weaker (23)0.700.520.640.360.750.67
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D10W50W02L05L02L02L00D10WA·MEL05/03A·ZEJ12/03H·TAR31/03A·ZUR08/04H·SLI15/04H·MEL22/04A·MAR15/09H·HAM23/09A·GZI26/09H·SAN01/10← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.570.600.801.330.33
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.331.670.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.850.400.700.501.000.30
vs Weaker (6)1.830.500.501.002.500.25
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W20W01L11D13L20W20W10W30WA·BAL05/03H·ZEB11/03A·SAN02/04H·GUD08/04A·MAR14/04H·HIB21/04A·SAN17/09H·BIR23/09H·HIB26/09A·BAL01/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.430.670.531.000.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.711.000.750.000.67
vs Weaker (23)0.910.350.550.451.250.25
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W21W11D00D00D00D13L02L11D30WA·MEL05/03A·ZEJ12/03H·TAR31/03A·ZUR08/04H·SLI15/04H·MEL22/04A·MAR15/09H·HAM23/09A·GZI26/09H·SAN01/10← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.630.870.531.270.73
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (20)1.250.551.000.401.500.70
vs Weaker (6)1.000.501.500.500.750.50
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Floriana's squad is €4m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Floriana's attack is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Floriana and Naxxar Lions have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Floriana's defence is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
FLO wins
0
Draws
0
NL wins

Head-to-head

Floriana vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from FLO
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23ABalzan FC Vs FLO0-3
26/09/23HFLO Vs Hibernians2-0
23/09/23HFLO Vs Birkirkara2-0
17/09/23ASanta Lucía Vs FLO0-4
21/04/23HFLO Vs Hibernians2-5
14/04/23AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-5
08/04/23HFLO Vs Gudja United1-1
02/04/23ASanta Lucía Vs FLO0-2
11/03/23HFLO Vs Zebbug Rangers1-0
05/03/23ABalzan FC Vs FLO3-1

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23HNL Vs Santa Lucía4-0
26/09/23AGzira United Vs NL1-1
23/09/23HNL Vs Hamrun Spartans0-4
15/09/23AMarsaxlokk Vs NL5-1
22/04/23HNL Vs Melita0-5
15/04/23HNL Vs Sliema Wanderers0-2
08/04/23AZurrieq Vs NL0-5
31/03/23HNL Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-1
12/03/23AZejtun Corinthians Vs NL1-2
05/03/23AMelita Vs NL1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.56
HomeWDLWW1.69
AwayLWWWW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%44%44%
AVG goals2.121.812.44
Over 1.5 %59%56%62%
Over 2.5 %28%12%44%
Over 3.5 %19%6%31%
Scored1.281.061.50
Conceded0.840.750.94
BTTS31%38%25%
Clean Sheet47%56%38%
Corners7.508.007.00
Cards5.507.004.00
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW2.06
HomeWLLLW1.81
AwayWWWLD2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %65%56%73%
AVG goals3.292.943.67
Over 1.5 %90%88%93%
Over 2.5 %68%56%80%
Over 3.5 %42%38%47%
Scored2.061.562.60
Conceded1.231.381.07
BTTS48%38%60%
Clean Sheet42%44%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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