Floriana vs Sliema Wanderers Result & Analysis

The match between Floriana and Sliema Wanderers is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 33% and 36%, while a draw is 31%. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% chance. Floriana, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.33 conceded, whereas Sliema Wanderers, on the road, averages 1.25 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s only suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.2% probability. The team that has a chance of winning is Sliema Wanderers, the model’s selection for an away victory. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 33% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 36% for an away win. The Under 3.5 goal pick stands at 80.2%.

The upset came early as Floriana snatched a 2-0 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite of an away win that the model had given a 36% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong, while the single suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit its 80.2% target. Floriana’s unbeaten run in the last five matches, highlighted by a 1-1 draw against Hamrun Spartans, proved decisive, and their home form - scoring an average of one goal and conceding only 0.33 - was on point. Sliema Wanderers, despite a recent win and an average of 1.25 goals scored, could not convert their away advantage, as the final score confirmed a home win.