Floridsdorfer AC are tipped to win, the model’s favourite outcome, with a 42% chance of a home victory, a 30% draw probability and a 28% chance of an away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.3% probability. Floridsdorfer, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 0.92 goals scored and 0.92 conceded. SV Kapfenberg, on the road, average 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 95.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 88.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.7%, Under 3.5 at 79.4%, Over 4.5 cards at 76.8% and Under 11.5 corners at 71.5%. Floridsdorfer’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Kapfenberg comes off a win after a series of losses. The match is likely to be tight, with both sides capable of scoring.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Floridsdorfer AC, failed to deliver a win, and the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely outcome of 1-1, which had a 14.3% chance. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 95.4%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 90.8%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 88.3%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 81.7%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.4%, Over 4.5 cards hit at 76.8%, while Under 11.5 corners missed at 71.5%. The game’s 2-game winning run for Floridsdorfer AC ended in a stalemate, and SV Kapfenberg, coming off a win, could not convert that momentum into a victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floridsdorfer AC win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floridsdorfer AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
0.85
0.92
1.29
1.65
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
1.14
1.25
0.92
0.92
1.31
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.80
1.60
1.80
1.40
1.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.00
0.67
2.67
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.58
1.83
1.58
1.08
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
1.00
-
-
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.8%
Under 1.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.1%
Under 2.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.1%
Floridsdorfer AC goals ↓
SV Kapfenberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.6%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.4%
8.5%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.6%
3.7%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floridsdorfer AC goals (down), columns = SV Kapfenberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ried
2.17
Admira Wacker
1.97
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SKN ST. Polten
1.77
First Vienna
1.63
FC Liefering
1.43
Sturm Graz II
1.40
SKU Amstetten
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Austria Lustenau
1.23
Floridsdorfer AC
1.23
Rapid Wien II
1.23
Stripfing
1.13
Voitsberg
1.07
SV Horn
1.00
SV Lafnitz
0.53
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.57 points worse than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
1.97
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.77
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
Rapid Wien II
1.63
First Vienna
1.63
Sturm Graz II
1.60
Admira Wacker
1.60
FC Liefering
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Stripfing
1.30
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
Voitsberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
0.80
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.77 goals worse than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.77
Austria Lustenau
0.87
Admira Wacker
1.03
SKN ST. Polten
1.13
Floridsdorfer AC
1.17
SKU Amstetten
1.33
Voitsberg
1.37
Sturm Graz II
1.43
FC Liefering
1.43
Stripfing
1.43
First Vienna
1.47
SV Kapfenberg
1.63
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.90
Rapid Wien II
1.90
SV Horn
2.03
SV Lafnitz
2.70
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.47 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
Admira Wacker
52%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
51%
SKN ST. Polten
51%
SV Kapfenberg
51%
Floridsdorfer AC
50%
Rapid Wien II
50%
Voitsberg
50%
Austria Lustenau
49%
SV Lafnitz
49%
SV Horn
46%
SKU Amstetten
45%
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.6 percentage points worse than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Floridsdorfer AC
For 5.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 15.8 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
For 4.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Floridsdorfer AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.6
4.0
3.9
4.1
25.7
27.6
24.1
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
11.0
9.0
3.3
4.0
2.0
35.0
44.0
26.0
vs Similar (47)
10.9
11.0
10.7
4.0
3.9
4.2
25.1
26.6
23.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
71%
63%
62%
61%
63%
73%
76%
70%
% under line
33%
29%
37%
38%
39%
37%
27%
24%
30%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.8
5.0
5.6
4.5
24.7
23.6
26.1
vs Stronger (8)
12.3
13.8
10.3
4.6
4.2
5.0
26.7
26.5
27.0
vs Similar (41)
9.7
8.9
10.8
5.2
5.8
4.6
24.3
22.9
25.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
56%
64%
72%
56%
74%
67%
82%
% under line
49%
52%
44%
36%
28%
44%
26%
33%
18%
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
11.0
FC Liefering
10.6
Floridsdorfer AC
10.6
SV Lafnitz
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.1
SKN ST. Polten
9.6
Austria Lustenau
9.6
Admira Wacker
9.6
Rapid Wien II
9.3
SV Horn
9.2
Ried
9.1
Voitsberg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Voitsberg
6.7
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
SV Lafnitz
5.2
Floridsdorfer AC
5.2
SKN ST. Polten
5.2
Austria Lustenau
5.1
Admira Wacker
5.1
First Vienna
5.0
Ried
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
SV Horn
4.8
SKU Amstetten
4.7
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Voitsberg
28.2
Floridsdorfer AC
26.8
First Vienna
26.5
FC Liefering
26.0
SV Kapfenberg
25.5
Admira Wacker
24.7
SKU Amstetten
24.4
Ried
24.4
Rapid Wien II
24.2
SV Horn
24.2
SV Lafnitz
24.0
Austria Lustenau
23.1
SKN ST. Polten
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
88.3%
Under 3.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floridsdorfer AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.31
0.62
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.82
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.58
0.75
0.67
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floridsdorfer AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.54
0.31
0.82
0.65
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.43
0.58
0.25
0.81
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.17
0.87
1.07
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (24)
0.71
1.00
1.08
0.92
0.33
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →