This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.70
0.93
1.33
1.40
2.07
vs Stronger (21)
1.19
2.00
0.91
1.55
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.76+7.3%
Under 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.05-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.7%
3-0 ✓
6.0%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
5.4%
Fortuna Düsseldorf goals ↓
Ingolstadt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
3.8%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.7%
11%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.0%
6.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Düsseldorf goals (down), columns = Ingolstadt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.68 points better than Ingolstadt in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.44 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.68 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf
For 6.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
For 3.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.4
4.0
3.9
4.0
23.5
22.8
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
10.1
9.9
10.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
23.4
23.0
23.9
vs Weaker (15)
9.5
8.0
10.2
3.7
3.2
3.9
23.8
22.2
24.6
% over line
50%
48%
52%
54%
56%
52%
74%
72%
76%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
46%
44%
48%
26%
28%
24%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.6
4.0
4.2
3.8
26.7
28.4
24.9
vs Stronger (33)
10.0
9.7
10.3
4.1
4.6
3.5
25.8
27.2
24.2
vs Similar (17)
8.7
9.0
8.4
3.9
3.4
4.3
28.4
31.0
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
40%
52%
52%
56%
48%
76%
92%
60%
% under line
54%
60%
48%
48%
44%
52%
24%
8%
40%
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.4
1. FC Heidenheim
10.7
Hannover 96
10.6
SV Sandhausen
10.4
1. FC Nürnberg
10.2
Karlsruher SC
10.1
Holstein Kiel
10.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
FC Schalke 04
9.8
SV Darmstadt 98
9.7
Ingolstadt
9.6
Werder Bremen
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Regensburg
9.2
Dynamo Dresden
9.2
Hansa Rostock
9.1
Erzgebirge Aue
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dynamo Dresden
4.7
Hansa Rostock
4.6
SV Darmstadt 98
4.6
Hamburger SV
4.6
SV Sandhausen
4.5
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
Werder Bremen
4.4
Regensburg
4.3
1. FC Nürnberg
4.3
Erzgebirge Aue
4.2
Hannover 96
4.0
FC St. Pauli
4.0
Ingolstadt
4.0
FC Schalke 04
4.0
Karlsruher SC
4.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.0
Holstein Kiel
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
27.8
Ingolstadt
26.7
SV Darmstadt 98
25.5
Hamburger SV
24.8
FC St. Pauli
24.7
Hansa Rostock
24.4
SV Sandhausen
24.4
Werder Bremen
24.3
Erzgebirge Aue
24.3
Hannover 96
24.2
Karlsruher SC
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.5
SC Paderborn 07
23.4
1. FC Nürnberg
23.3
Dynamo Dresden
23.1
Holstein Kiel
22.0
1. FC Heidenheim
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.3%
Under 21.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.69
0.56
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.48
0.58
0.58
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (21)
0.48
0.95
0.55
0.82
0.40
1.10
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.50
0.25
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.00
0.75
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
1.19
1.08
0.92
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.33
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.40
0.67
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (21)
0.71
1.05
0.36
0.73
1.10
1.40
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cédric Itten44%
Florent Muslija17%
Jordy de Wijs12%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp10%
Christian Rasmussen8%
Anouar El Azzouzi6%
Luca Raimund6%
Kenneth Schmidt5%
Elias Egouli5%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Sima Suso4%
Tim Oberdorf3%
Žan Celar0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Christopher Lenz0%
Matthias Zimmermann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Satoshi Tanaka0%
Jesper Daland0%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos0%
Tim Breithaupt0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Danny Schmidt0%
Marin Ljubičić0%
Jordi Paulina0%
Kilian Sauck0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jamil Siebert67%
Kilian Sauck33%
Anouar El Azzouzi32%
Jesper Daland25%
Jordi Paulina25%
Matthias Zimmermann24%
Kenneth Schmidt24%
Tim Breithaupt24%
Elias Egouli23%
Christian Rasmussen20%
Moritz Heyer19%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos19%
Cédric Itten19%
Christopher Lenz18%
Florent Muslija17%
Tim Rossmann17%
Sima Suso16%
Jordy de Wijs12%
Luca Raimund12%
Tim Oberdorf12%
Florian Kastenmeier9%
Emmanuel Iyoha8%
Satoshi Tanaka8%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson7%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp3%
Žan Celar0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Danny Schmidt0%
Marin Ljubičić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Shinta Karl Appelkamp17%
Florent Muslija17%
Christian Rasmussen16%
Satoshi Tanaka15%
Danny Schmidt15%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson14%
Cédric Itten9%
Christopher Lenz6%
Tim Breithaupt6%
Kenneth Schmidt5%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Anouar El Azzouzi3%
Florian Kastenmeier3%
Žan Celar0%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Matthias Zimmermann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Jesper Daland0%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos0%
Tim Oberdorf0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Marin Ljubičić0%
Luca Raimund0%
Sima Suso0%
Jordi Paulina0%
Elias Egouli0%
Kilian Sauck0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cédric Itten38%
Florent Muslija13%
Marin Ljubičić10%
Emmanuel Iyoha8%
Christian Rasmussen8%
Sima Suso8%
Anouar El Azzouzi6%
Jesper Daland4%
Žan Celar0%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Christopher Lenz0%
Matthias Zimmermann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Satoshi Tanaka0%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp0%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos0%
Tim Oberdorf0%
Tim Breithaupt0%
Kenneth Schmidt0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Danny Schmidt0%
Luca Raimund0%
Jordi Paulina0%
Elias Egouli0%
Kilian Sauck0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Fortuna Düsseldorf's squad is €3m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€10m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Ingolstadt have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Fortuna Düsseldorf's midfield is €1m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is €2m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€5m vs €3m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Erzgebirge Aue