This highly anticipated match between Fratria and Beroe in the Bulgaria: Second League is finely balanced, with recent form playing a significant role in the narrative. Fratria is coming off a win, having beaten Rilski Sportist 1-0, while Beroe suffered a 0-1 defeat against Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The model predicts an away win for Beroe, with a 41% probability, ahead of a 31% draw probability and a 28% home win probability for Fratria.
The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Fratria has been scoring an average of 2.44 goals at home, conceding 0.89, while Beroe has been scoring 0.75 goals away, conceding 1.75 to stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a 79.7% probability, indicating a slight edge for this outcome. Other suggested picks include the Home win, Away win, and Draw, with probabilities of 28%, 41%, and 31% respectively.
Results analysis
Fratria's 2-0 win over Beroe was a major upset, as the visitors were the pre-match favourite with a 41% chance of winning. The model's selection, Beroe's away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.9%. The win extends Fratria's run of three consecutive victories, having come off a 3-game winning streak. Beroe, on the other hand, was coming off a defeat and had a tougher away form, conceding an average of 3 goals per match. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fratria win✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.10
Edge
-14.0%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.30
Betano
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Dafabet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 2.95
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
3.00
Dafabet
3.00
Beroe win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.30
Edge
+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.53
1xBet
3.53
Marathonbet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
2.13
0.93
1.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.65
0.96
2.08
1.00
1.18
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.57
2.33
0.67
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beroe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.33
0.75
1.31
0.64
1.36
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.83
0.00
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.96
0.92
1.00
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.38+2.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.69-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.88
888Sport
2.63
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.5%
@ 2.24-0.4%
Under 2.5
59.5%
@ 1.55+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
@ 4.19-1.7%
Under 3.5
79.9%
@ 1.17+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
3.50
Under
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
@ 1.93+0.2%
No
52.4%
@ 1.74-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.91
No
Unibet
1.81
Betfair
1.75
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.57+7.4%
0-1
11.4%@ 7.77+6.4%
0-0
11.3%@ 6.83+5.5%
1-0
9.0%@ 5.81+2.2%
1-2
8.3%@ 11.48+4.9%
0-2
8.1%@ 15.55+5.6%
2-1
6.7%@ 8.41+2.1%
2-0 ✓
5.3%@ 8.88+0.9%
Fratria goals ↓
Beroe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
1
9.0%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.3%
6.7%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.8%
2.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fratria goals (down), columns = Beroe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Fratria is 0.43 points better than Beroe in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Fratria and Beroe are level in goals scored per game (both 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Fratria is 0.29 goals better than Beroe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.52
0.92
0.50
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beroe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.25
0.38
0.31
0.38
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.13
0.47
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.43
1.17
0.50
0.55
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beroe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.50
0.81
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.83
0.00
1.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.58
0.62
0.62
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.9%
1.17
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Beroe · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alberto Salido67%
Alberto Salido27%
Marco Borgnino20%
Facundo Alarcon13%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Ismael Ferrer5%
Juan Pablo Salomoni4%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Alex Masogo0%
Juanca Pineda0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Leandro Godoy0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Gianluca Colla0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Nene0%
João Sérgio Milheirão0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Nene0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Valverde Juan45%
Francisco Varela40%
Facundo Constantini37%
Leandro Godoy33%
Santiago Brunelli30%
Facundo Alarcon27%
Carlos Algarra López25%
Alex Masogo25%
Emir Kuhinja22%
Augusto Dabo22%
Marco Borgnino20%
Gianluca Colla20%
João Sérgio Milheirão20%
Ismael Ferrer18%
Wesley Rocha17%
Tijan Sonha15%
Miroslav Georgiev14%
Juanca Pineda14%
Jaume Valens Cardell12%
Caio Lopes9%
Alberto Salido9%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
Juan Pablo Salomoni4%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Alberto Salido0%
Arthur Motta0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Nene0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Carlos Algarra López25%
Gianluca Colla20%
Viktorio Valkov17%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
João Sérgio Milheirão5%
Juanca Pineda5%
Ismael Ferrer5%
Marco Borgnino0%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Alberto Salido0%
Alex Masogo0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Leandro Godoy0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Juan Pablo Salomoni0%
Nene0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Facundo Alarcon0%
Alberto Salido0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Godoy100%
Alberto Salido36%
Alberto Salido33%
Juanca Pineda9%
Ismael Ferrer9%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
Facundo Alarcon7%
Marco Borgnino0%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Alex Masogo0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Gianluca Colla0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Juan Pablo Salomoni0%
Nene0%
João Sérgio Milheirão0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Fratria's squad is €2m more valuable than Beroe's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Fratria and Beroe have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Fratria and Beroe have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Fratria and Beroe have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Yantra 2019
Montana
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad