Fratria are tipped to take the win in a tight Second League encounter, with a 50% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Chernomorets 1919 Burgas victory. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Fratria, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, have averaged 1.85 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, on the road, average 1.67 scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1%, Under 5.5 at 94.8%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.5%. Fratria’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 1-0 win over CSKA Sofia II, and Chernomorets’ recent 3-0 triumph over Pirin Blagoevgrad, set the stage for a closely fought match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fratria win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
2.00
0.87
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.95
1.92
0.92
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
2.33
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.47
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.96
1.00
0.46
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.4%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
Fratria goals ↓
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.2%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.5%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.9%
5.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fratria goals (down), columns = Chernomorets 1919 Burgas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Fratria is 0.43 points better than Chernomorets 1919 Burgas in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Fratria is 0.29 goals better than Chernomorets 1919 Burgas in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Fratria and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fratria or Draw
76.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Fratria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fratria or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
72.7%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Fratria + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
50.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fratria over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5
Over
64.3%
Under
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fratria, so a minus line means Fratria give that many goals of a start and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas receive them. At -1, Fratria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fratria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fratria)
Fratria -2
11.2%
Draw -2
15.5%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +2
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fratria)
Fratria -1
26.7%
Draw -1
22.9%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas +1
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fratria)
Fratria +1
76.9%
Draw +1
14.2%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fratria)
Fratria +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.4%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.42
0.77
0.23
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
Under 1.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.13
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
1.17
0.42
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.27
0.20
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.54
0.23
0.23
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.6%
Under 1.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Fratria and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Fratria and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Fratria and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Fratria and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad