Fratria vs Ludogorets II Result & Analysis

Fratria’s defensive record at home - allowing 1.6 goals per game - sets a low-scoring tone against Ludogorets II, who concede 1.36 away. The model projects a 36% chance of a Fratria win, 32% for a draw and 32% for a Ludogorets II win, with the home side the clear favourite. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight contest, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.8% probability. Fratria’s average 1.1 goals scored at home versus similar opponents and Ludogorets II’s 0.64 away goals illustrate the modest offensive output. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 83% chance. In summary: Home win 36%, Draw 32%, Away win 32%. The Under 3.5 pick stands at 83%.

The pre-match favourite, Fratria, failed to deliver, as the game finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick incorrect. Fratria’s recent form shows an unbeaten run in their last five matches, yet they could not overcome Ludogorets II’s resilience, who also entered the game after a draw. The model had given the home side a 36% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. The only other selection was the Under 3.5 total, assigned an 83% probability, which missed as the match produced four goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 14.8% also did not materialise.