Fratria are the clear favourites to win at home, a verdict the model gives a 62% probability to. Their home form is strong against weaker opposition, averaging 2.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, while Spartak Pleven, playing away against a stronger side, has struggled, netting only 0.86 goals and conceding 2.29. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.6% chance. The model picks a home win as the most likely result, and the total probability for a home victory is 62%, a draw 23%, and an away win 15%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Home +2 handicap (95.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.6%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.9%), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.5%). Fratria’s recent draw and Spartak Pleven’s two consecutive defeats set the stage for a likely Fratria victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fratria win
66.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven win
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
2.00
0.87
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.95
1.92
0.92
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
2.33
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Pleven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.50
1.14
0.94
1.81
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.23
1.20
1.60
0.88
2.62
vs Similar (17)
1.35
0.94
1.67
0.89
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.1%
1-0
10.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.4%
4-0
4.5%
Fratria goals ↓
Spartak Pleven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.5%
6.8%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.5%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fratria goals (down), columns = Spartak Pleven goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Fratria is 1.00 points better than Spartak Pleven in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Fratria is 0.29 goals better than Spartak Pleven in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Fratria is 1.43 goals better than Spartak Pleven in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fratria or Draw
87.7%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Fratria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fratria or Spartak Pleven
78.8%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Fratria + Spartak Pleven
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartak Pleven
33.5%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Draw + Spartak Pleven
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fratria over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5
Over
62.2%
Under
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 3.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fratria, so a minus line means Fratria give that many goals of a start and Spartak Pleven receive them. At -1, Fratria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fratria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fratria)
Fratria -2
22.6%
Draw -2
20.5%
Spartak Pleven +2
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fratria)
Fratria -1
43.1%
Draw -1
23.4%
Spartak Pleven +1
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fratria)
Fratria +1
87.7%
Draw +1
8.4%
Spartak Pleven -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fratria)
Fratria +2
96.1%
Draw +2
3.0%
Spartak Pleven -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Pleven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.50
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.85
0.80
0.40
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.89
0.56
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.13
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
1.17
0.42
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Pleven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.64
0.64
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.38
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Fratria's squad is €2m more valuable than Spartak Pleven's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Fratria and Spartak Pleven have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Fratria and Spartak Pleven have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Fratria and Spartak Pleven have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →