Fredrikstad is favoured to win at home against Sandefjord, with a recent surge in form having won their last two matches. The model predicts a 46% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. Fredrikstad has a strong home form, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against weaker opponents. Sandefjord, on the other hand, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded when playing away against stronger opponents. The model's selection is the Home win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, which has a 79.9% probability and a 3% edge. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 28%.
Results analysis
Today's matchup between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord in the Norway: Eliteserien saw a 1-0 final score, resulting in a home win. This win extends Fredrikstad's run of two consecutive victories. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 46%.
The model's call was on the right track as it also suggested a low-scoring game, with the most likely total goals being 2, occurring with 24% probability. Among the model's selections, over 1.5 goals was predicted with an 80% probability, but it missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fredrikstad win✓ Hit
45.6%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.29
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Dafabet
2.33
Unibet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.36
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Sandefjord win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.95
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.15
1xBet
3.11
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fredrikstad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.57
1.38
1.15
1.06
1.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.86
0.33
1.00
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.63
1.67
1.11
1.30
2.10
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
2.00
2.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandefjord) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandefjord
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
0.86
1.07
1.62
2.06
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
1.81
0.50
1.38
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.36
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.9%
@ 1.21+3.1%
Under 1.5
20.1%
@ 4.03-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.27
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.72+1.1%
Under 2.5
44.2%
@ 2.08-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Under
SBO
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Unibet
2.08
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.4%
@ 2.73-0.6%
Under 3.5
66.6%
@ 1.41+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.1%
@ 1.57-0.1%
No
40.9%
@ 2.27+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.26+5.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.47+4.0%
1-0 ✓
7.8%@ 8.92+2.8%
2-0
7.4%@ 11.80+3.6%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.76+2.5%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.33+2.6%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.05+1.8%
0-1
5.7%@ 10.09+1.2%
Fredrikstad goals ↓
Sandefjord goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.7%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.8%
12%
7.1%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.4%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.2%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fredrikstad goals (down), columns = Sandefjord goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.41
Viking
2.35
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.59
Lillestrom
1.53
Brann
1.47
Rosenborg
1.41
Fredrikstad
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.29
Valerenga
1.24
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Sandefjord
1.06
Aalesund
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Start
0.59
Fredrikstad is 0.29 points better than Sandefjord in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.53
Viking
2.35
Brann
2.12
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.88
Valerenga
1.65
Aalesund
1.59
Rosenborg
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.41
Lillestrom
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.18
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.06
Start
0.94
Sandefjord
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Fredrikstad is 0.18 goals better than Sandefjord in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.71
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.18
Lillestrom
1.24
Rosenborg
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35
Sandefjord
1.35
Molde
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.59
Fredrikstad
1.59
Kristiansund BK
1.59
Brann
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.76
Valerenga
2.00
Start
2.24
Aalesund
2.41
Fredrikstad is 0.24 goals worse than Sandefjord in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Fredrikstad is 3.2 percentage points worse than Sandefjord in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fredrikstad
For 3.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sandefjord
For 5.7 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fredrikstad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.3
2.8
3.1
2.5
20.8
19.7
21.6
vs Stronger (12)
9.6
8.2
10.5
2.9
3.6
2.4
18.7
19.5
18.2
vs Similar (31)
10.1
9.9
10.2
2.8
3.0
2.7
22.0
19.8
24.2
vs Weaker (7)
9.0
6.5
10.2
2.1
2.5
2.0
18.7
19.5
18.2
% over line
62%
53%
70%
32%
33%
31%
40%
26%
52%
% under line
38%
47%
30%
68%
67%
69%
60%
74%
48%
This opponent (Sandefjord) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandefjord
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.2
11.7
3.3
3.5
3.1
25.2
25.0
25.5
vs Stronger (25)
10.0
8.8
10.9
3.8
3.9
3.6
24.5
24.5
24.5
vs Similar (23)
12.0
11.4
12.8
3.0
3.1
2.9
26.0
25.4
26.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
63%
65%
61%
46%
52%
41%
72%
78%
65%
% under line
37%
35%
39%
54%
48%
59%
28%
22%
35%
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
11.7
Viking
11.6
Aalesund
11.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Rosenborg
10.9
Sandefjord
10.9
Brann
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.7
Ham-Kam
10.3
Lillestrom
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.7
Tromso
9.0
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Start
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.3
Molde
4.3
Brann
4.1
Valerenga
4.0
Lillestrom
3.9
Rosenborg
3.9
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Start
3.7
Sandefjord
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.1
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
24.9
Viking
24.7
Start
24.3
Brann
24.2
Rosenborg
24.0
Valerenga
23.9
Molde
23.2
Tromso
23.0
Ham-Kam
22.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.8
Kristiansund BK
22.1
Lillestrom
21.8
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Aalesund
21.4
Fredrikstad
21.0
Bodo/Glimt
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.7%
@ 1.53+1.8%
Under 9.5
38.3%
@ 2.30-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.23
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.2%
Under 21.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fredrikstad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.77
0.69
0.35
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.89
0.67
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandefjord) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandefjord
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.43
0.29
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.62
0.25
0.25
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.79
0.67
0.33
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandefjord over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandefjord over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandefjord over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fredrikstad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.62
0.46
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.84
0.78
0.44
0.70
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandefjord) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandefjord
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.43
0.79
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.19
0.25
1.12
0.88
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
0.67
0.33
1.12
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandefjord over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandefjord over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandefjord over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (25)
€45m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (24)
€25m
ROS (20)
€18m
S0F (24)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
VAL (19)
€14m
AAL (24)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (22)
€11m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Fredrikstad's squad is €4m more valuable than Sandefjord's (€15m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (9)
€20m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (9)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
ROS (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
AAL (6)
€5m
SAN (7)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Fredrikstad's attack is €1m more valuable than Sandefjord's (€5m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Fredrikstad and Sandefjord have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
MOL (11)
€15m
VIK (11)
€13m
BRA (11)
€9m
ROS (10)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
VAL (6)
€3m
Fredrikstad's defence is €2m more valuable than Sandefjord's (€8m vs €5m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
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Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Lillestrom
Brann
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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