PythiaFootballBETA
Frosinone are heavily favoured to win at home against Mantova, having recently completed a 4-game winning run, including a dominant 5-0 victory over their opponents last week. They have a strong home record, scoring 2.4 goals on average and conceding just 0.4.
The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 11.9%. Frosinone's home scoring and conceding statistics suggest they will continue to dominate at home.
The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 56%. The suggested picks are Over 21.5 fouls (95.5%), Over 1.5 goals (78.2%), and Over 3.5 cards (72.0%). Frosinone are 56% likely to win, 25% likely to draw, and 19% likely to lose.
In terms of form, Mantova are coming off a defeat and have struggled away from home, scoring just 0.33 goals on average and conceding 2.33.
The win extends Frosinone's run of four consecutive victories, with their latest triumph coming at the expense of Mantova, who suffered a 5-0 defeat at home. The model's call for a home win proved correct, as Frosinone dominated the match from start to finish. The model's selection of home win had a pre-match probability of 56%. In addition to the correct call, the model's selections largely came in, with over 21.5 fouls, over 1.5 goals, and over 3.5 cards all being hit. The model's suggested picks were highly accurate, with probabilities of 95.5%, 78.2%, and 72% respectively.
Frosinone| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 0.90 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.87 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.79 | 1.11 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 1.78 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 2.18 | 0.55 | 2.40 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Mantova| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.36 | 0.96 | 1.38 | 0.77 | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Mantova goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 12% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
FrosinoneMantovaFrosinone| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 30.5 | 29.0 | 31.8 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 9.9 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 29.8 | 27.7 | 31.4 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 10.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 31.4 | 30.4 | 32.5 |
| % over line | 56% | 54% | 58% | 70% | 71% | 69% | 96% | 92% | 100% |
| % under line | 44% | 46% | 42% | 30% | 29% | 31% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
Mantova| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 33.0 | 33.2 | 32.8 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 33.9 | 30.8 | 36.5 |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 32.7 | 33.7 | 31.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 36.0 | - | 36.0 |
| % over line | 47% | 42% | 52% | 82% | 88% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 53% | 58% | 48% | 18% | 12% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/12/24 | A | 3-1 |
Frosinone| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
Mantova| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Monza | 42 | 83 | 57% | 2.0 | 67 | 37 | +30 | 2.5 | 74% | 48% | 21% | 9.1 | 40% | 4.5 | 63% | 27.9 | 88% | 49 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 |  Venezia | 38 | 82 | 63% | 2.2 | 77 | 31 | +46 | 2.8 | 89% | 58% | 32% | 9.2 | 47% | 4.4 | 71% | 30.2 | 92% | 79 | 15 | 35 | 28 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 64% |
| 3 | Frosinone | 38 | 81 | 61% | 2.1 | 76 | 34 | +42 | 2.9 | 84% | 61% | 37% | 10.2 | 61% | 4.9 | 76% | 30.5 | 97% | 55 | 22 | 12 | 21 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 4 |  Palermo | 40 | 75 | 52% | 1.9 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 20% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 74% | 28.3 | 90% | 35 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 5 |  Catanzaro | 43 | 68 | 42% | 1.6 | 70 | 55 | +15 | 2.9 | 84% | 53% | 37% | 8.7 | 42% | 4.9 | 65% | 30.4 | 100% | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 6 |  Modena | 39 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 49 | 37 | +12 | 2.2 | 74% | 49% | 10% | 9.3 | 44% | 4.6 | 66% | 29.3 | 90% | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 7 |  Juve Stabia | 41 | 55 | 29% | 1.3 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 2.4 | 73% | 44% | 24% | 8.8 | 29% | 5.0 | 74% | 29.5 | 95% | 34 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 8 |  Avellino | 39 | 49 | 33% | 1.3 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.6 | 77% | 46% | 23% | 9.3 | 51% | 5.0 | 69% | 30.8 | 97% | 21 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Padova | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.3 | 61% | 39% | 21% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.8 | 74% | 28.6 | 97% | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 10 |  Cesena | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 2.7 | 79% | 53% | 29% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.1 | 58% | 25.4 | 82% | 28 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 11 | Mantova | 38 | 46 | 34% | 1.2 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 2.7 | 71% | 53% | 26% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.3 | 82% | 32.3 | 100% | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 57% |
| 12 |  Carrarese | 38 | 44 | 26% | 1.2 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 2.6 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 10.5 | 68% | 5.1 | 71% | 28.5 | 87% | 25 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 13 |  Sampdoria | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 2.2 | 63% | 39% | 16% | 9.2 | 39% | 4.8 | 70% | 32.2 | 92% | 41 | 14 | 5 | 22 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 14 |  Sudtirol | 40 | 43 | 20% | 1.1 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 2.1 | 68% | 38% | 18% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 30.8 | 95% | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 15 |  Virtus Entella | 38 | 42 | 26% | 1.1 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.9 | 63% | 4.4 | 62% | 29.5 | 95% | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 16 |  Bari | 40 | 42 | 25% | 1.1 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 2.5 | 78% | 50% | 20% | 9.4 | 50% | 4.7 | 65% | 29.0 | 85% | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 17 |  Empoli | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 2.7 | 76% | 47% | 32% | 10.0 | 55% | 4.5 | 76% | 30.4 | 92% | 36 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 18 |  Reggiana | 38 | 37 | 24% | 1.0 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 2.4 | 68% | 47% | 26% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.5 | 66% | 29.4 | 92% | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 41% |
| 19 |  Pescara | 38 | 35 | 18% | 0.9 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 3.1 | 89% | 63% | 39% | 10.5 | 63% | 5.1 | 76% | 31.3 | 95% | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 51% |
| 20 |  Spezia | 38 | 35 | 21% | 0.9 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 2.7 | 76% | 45% | 29% | 9.9 | 53% | 5.4 | 82% | 31.5 | 100% | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 48% |