The clash at FSV Mainz 05’s ground is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds almost evenly split. The predicted probabilities are 38% for a Mainz victory, 26% for a draw and 36% for Frankfurt. The expected goal count sits at 3.0, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability. Mainz’s home form shows 1.36 goals scored and 0.79 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Frankfurt’s away numbers are 2.11 scored and 2.22 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%, edge 2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (95.2%, edge 1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%) and Away under 3.5 goals (91.1%). Both sides have come off draws, Mainz 0-0 against SC Paderborn 07 and Frankfurt 3-3 with Union Berlin.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 win
37.6%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.11
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
Dafabet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.71
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.88
Pinnacle
3.83
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Betano
3.80
Eintracht Frankfurt win
35.7%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.13
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.22
Betano
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.47
1.00
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.40
3.00
4.00
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.08
1.36
0.79
1.18
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.97
1.33
1.60
1.67
2.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
3.33
2.00
3.00
1.25
3.50
vs Similar (20)
1.65
1.90
1.27
1.64
2.11
2.22
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.7%
@ 1.17+0.4%
Under 1.5
19.3%
@ 4.76-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.9%
@ 1.57-3.5%
Under 2.5
43.1%
@ 2.39+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.47
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.43
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.5%
@ 2.42-4.7%
Under 3.5
65.5%
@ 1.56+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Bet365
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
@ 1.50-1.4%
No
39.1%
@ 2.47+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 7.00+5.9%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.31+3.0%
1-2
8.3%@ 10.31+3.8%
1-0
6.6%@ 9.96+2.0%
0-1
6.4%@ 12.40+2.7%
0-0
6.3%@ 14.34+3.1%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.96+2.0%
2-0
5.8%@ 11.66+1.9%
FSV Mainz 05 goals ↓
Eintracht Frankfurt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.4%
5.5%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.6%
12%
8.3%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.5%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.9%
4.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FSV Mainz 05 goals (down), columns = Eintracht Frankfurt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.12 points worse than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.50 goals worse than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.35 goals better than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
FSV Mainz 05 is 11.0 percentage points worse than Eintracht Frankfurt in terms of average possession (44% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
For 5.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eintracht Frankfurt
For 5.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FSV Mainz 05
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.8
9.1
4.3
4.2
4.5
21.7
23.0
20.4
vs Stronger (9)
8.6
8.8
8.2
4.4
4.8
4.0
22.3
26.4
17.2
vs Similar (41)
9.7
10.0
9.3
4.3
4.0
4.6
21.6
22.1
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
56%
42%
58%
56%
60%
49%
56%
42%
% under line
51%
44%
58%
42%
44%
40%
51%
44%
58%
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.3
8.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
19.9
19.3
20.5
vs Stronger (12)
8.1
9.2
7.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
19.9
18.5
21.3
vs Similar (29)
9.5
10.3
8.8
4.2
4.3
4.1
20.1
19.6
20.5
vs Weaker (9)
9.2
6.2
12.2
3.0
3.2
2.8
19.4
19.5
19.2
% over line
47%
50%
44%
46%
60%
32%
37%
38%
36%
% under line
53%
50%
56%
54%
40%
68%
63%
62%
64%
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.82+0.7%
Under 9.5
48.8%
@ 1.86-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.82
Under
Unibet
1.86
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
41.2%
Under 21.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
60.7%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.36
Edge
-9.0%
38%
27%
36%
covers FSV Mainz 05 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
FSV Mainz 05 or Eintracht Frankfurt
74.8%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.1%
38%
27%
36%
covers FSV Mainz 05 + Eintracht Frankfurt
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt
64.6%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.71
Edge
+9.2%
38%
27%
36%
covers Draw + Eintracht Frankfurt
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
@ 1.15-1.2%
Under
20.6%
@ 4.78+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5
Over
46.8%
@ 1.81-4.9%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.94+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Betano
1.95
Betfair
1.91
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5
Over
21.1%
@ 3.50-5.5%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.27+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.44
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
@ 7.68-4.5%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.06+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
@ 1.25+7.0%
Under
18.8%
@ 3.59-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.55
1xBet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 1.5
Over
49.8%
@ 2.26+8.4%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.59-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 2.5
Over
23.5%
@ 5.09+5.2%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.14-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
@ 11.81+0.8%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.03-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
11.50
1xBet
11.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FSV Mainz 05, so a minus line means FSV Mainz 05 give that many goals of a start and Eintracht Frankfurt receive them. At -1, FSV Mainz 05 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FSV Mainz 05 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FSV Mainz 05)
FSV Mainz 05 -2
7.0%
@ 7.53-4.9%
Draw -2
10.8%
@ 5.93-4.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt +2
82.2%
@ 1.23+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (FSV Mainz 05)
FSV Mainz 05 -1
17.8%
@ 3.71-6.6%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 4.05-4.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt +1
64.6%
@ 1.70+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.62
Handicap +1 (FSV Mainz 05)
FSV Mainz 05 +1
60.7%
@ 1.35-5.6%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 4.84+0.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt -1
20.6%
@ 5.90+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Handicap +2 (FSV Mainz 05)
FSV Mainz 05 +2
79.4%
@ 1.10-1.6%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 7.66+0.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt -2
8.6%
@ 12.14+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
6.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FSV Mainz 05
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.73
0.20
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.40
0.57
0.21
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.33
0.40
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.60
0.27
0.36
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.9%
@ 1.27+0.4%
Under 0.5
26.1%
@ 3.52-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.4%
@ 2.29-3.6%
Under 1.5
62.6%
@ 1.59+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 5.18-5.2%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.14+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Betano
5.20
1xBet
5.05
Under
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.2%
@ 1.73-2.6%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.0%
@ 4.62-5.1%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.16+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
@ 10.25-6.7%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.3%
@ 2.01-0.8%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.73+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.8%
@ 6.06-4.5%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.09+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
@ 12.00-5.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FSV Mainz 05
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.00
4.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.68
0.79
0.57
0.36
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Eintracht Frankfurt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.27
1.00
1.20
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.30
1.00
1.27
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.2%
@ 1.16+1.5%
Under 0.5
17.8%
@ 4.87-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.1%
@ 1.80-4.1%
Under 1.5
51.9%
@ 1.97+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.4%
@ 3.42-7.1%
Under 2.5
79.6%
@ 1.29+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.1%
@ 1.50-7.3%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.48+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.46
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.1%
@ 3.35-7.6%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.28+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
@ 8.30-6.1%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
@ 1.73-0.2%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.01+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.0%
@ 4.45-2.8%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.17+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Eintracht Frankfurt over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 9.75-5.9%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+1.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+6.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+4.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-0.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.5%
Under 5.5
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+1.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+5.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
+5.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+1.5%
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+9.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
+2.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
81.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+7.0%
Over 1.5
80.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+0.4%
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.28
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
-
+7.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+7.1%
Home +2 handicap
79.4%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-1.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-1.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
78.9%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+5.5%
Under 4.5
77.2%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-0.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
76.5%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
-5.2%
Home or Away
74.8%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
-0.1%
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+0.4%
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FSV Mainz 05 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nadiem Amiri46%
Sheraldo Becker21%
Phillip Tietz17%
Jae-sung Lee15%
Stefan Bell13%
Silas11%
Stefan Posch10%
Benedict Hollerbach10%
Paul Nebel9%
Armindo Sieb9%
Silvan Widmer8%
Nelson Weiper6%
Sota Kawasaki6%
Dominik Kohr5%
Danny da Costa4%
Kacper Potulski4%
Kaishu Sano4%
Phillipp Mwene3%
Arnaud Nordin0%
Anthony Caci0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
William Bøving0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Nikolas Veratschnig0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dominik Kohr36%
Stefan Posch30%
Stefan Bell26%
Nadiem Amiri26%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen24%
Anthony Caci23%
Robin Zentner22%
Nikolas Veratschnig21%
Ben Justus Bobzien20%
Sheraldo Becker14%
Phillip Tietz13%
Kacper Potulski13%
Silvan Widmer12%
Silas11%
Daniel Batz11%
Sota Kawasaki11%
Jae-sung Lee10%
Phillipp Mwene10%
Paul Nebel9%
Armindo Sieb9%
Danny da Costa7%
Lennard Maloney6%
William Bøving6%
Arnaud Nordin5%
Nelson Weiper3%
Kaishu Sano2%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Benedict Hollerbach0%
Lasse Riess0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sheraldo Becker21%
Benedict Hollerbach14%
Paul Nebel11%
Jae-sung Lee10%
Danny da Costa9%
Phillip Tietz9%
Nadiem Amiri9%
Anthony Caci8%
Kaishu Sano6%
Sota Kawasaki6%
William Bøving6%
Phillipp Mwene5%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen5%
Stefan Bell4%
Nikolas Veratschnig3%
Silvan Widmer2%
Stefan Posch0%
Dominik Kohr0%
Silas0%
Arnaud Nordin0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Armindo Sieb0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Kacper Potulski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phillip Tietz39%
Sheraldo Becker21%
Benedict Hollerbach19%
Nadiem Amiri17%
Nelson Weiper9%
Silvan Widmer8%
Armindo Sieb6%
Arnaud Nordin5%
Jae-sung Lee5%
Phillipp Mwene5%
Stefan Posch5%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen5%
Stefan Bell4%
Nikolas Veratschnig3%
Kaishu Sano2%
Dominik Kohr0%
Danny da Costa0%
Silas0%
Anthony Caci0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
Sota Kawasaki0%
William Bøving0%
Paul Nebel0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
Kacper Potulski0%
Eintracht Frankfurt · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonathan Burkardt38%
Can Uzun36%
Arnaud Kalimuendo32%
Younes Ebnoutalib20%
Ansgar Knauff18%
Ritsu Doan12%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab12%
Rasmus Kristensen11%
Mahmoud Dahoud11%
Michy Batshuayi10%
Nathaniel Brown10%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya8%
Farès Chaïbi8%
Elye Wahi7%
Hugo Larsson6%
Robin Koch5%
Oscar Højlund4%
Nnamdi Collins3%
Arthur Theate3%
Mario Götze0%
Michael Zetterer0%
Aurélio Buta0%
Ellyes Skhiri0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Love Arrhov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rasmus Kristensen25%
Arthur Theate24%
Arnaud Kalimuendo21%
Aurèle Amenda21%
Love Arrhov20%
Aurélio Buta17%
Nnamdi Collins17%
Ritsu Doan15%
Oscar Højlund11%
Can Uzun11%
Ansgar Knauff11%
Michy Batshuayi10%
Nathaniel Brown10%
Farès Chaïbi8%
Elye Wahi7%
Jonathan Burkardt7%
Ellyes Skhiri6%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab6%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya5%
Robin Koch5%
Michael Zetterer4%
Mario Götze3%
Mahmoud Dahoud0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Hugo Larsson0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Younes Ebnoutalib0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Elye Wahi21%
Farès Chaïbi21%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab18%
Mahmoud Dahoud16%
Nathaniel Brown14%
Can Uzun14%
Ritsu Doan10%
Hugo Larsson9%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya8%
Mario Götze7%
Jonathan Burkardt7%
Nnamdi Collins7%
Arnaud Kalimuendo5%
Ansgar Knauff5%
Robin Koch5%
Oscar Højlund4%
Rasmus Kristensen0%
Michy Batshuayi0%
Michael Zetterer0%
Aurélio Buta0%
Ellyes Skhiri0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Arthur Theate0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Younes Ebnoutalib0%
Love Arrhov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Ebnoutalib20%
Can Uzun18%
Jonathan Burkardt17%
Elye Wahi14%
Ansgar Knauff8%
Ritsu Doan8%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab6%
Jean-Mattéo Bahoya5%
Arnaud Kalimuendo5%
Arthur Theate3%
Robin Koch2%
Mahmoud Dahoud0%
Mario Götze0%
Rasmus Kristensen0%
Michy Batshuayi0%
Michael Zetterer0%
Aurélio Buta0%
Ellyes Skhiri0%
Aurèle Amenda0%
Jessic Ngankam0%
Nnamdi Collins0%
Farès Chaïbi0%
Nathaniel Brown0%
Hugo Larsson0%
Oscar Højlund0%
Kauã Santos0%
Elias Baum0%
Love Arrhov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
FSV Mainz 05's squad is €148m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€175m vs €323m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
FSV Mainz 05's attack is €125m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€49m vs €174m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
FSV Mainz 05's midfield is €2m more valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€80m vs €78m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
FSV Mainz 05's defence is €25m less valuable than Eintracht Frankfurt's (€47m vs €72m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Union Berlin
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart