Pythia gives FSV Mainz 05 a 51% win probability against Union Berlin in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-10, with 27% for the draw and 22% for Union Berlin. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (84%), Under 5.5 cards (81%), Over 1.5 (76%), Over 2.5 cards (74%).
Results analysis
FSV Mainz 05 finished 1-3 against Union Berlin (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 51% home win, 27% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (84%), Under 5.5 cards (81%), Over 1.5 (76%), Over 2.5 cards (74%), Under 23.5 fouls (72%). Missed: Under 11.5 corners (73%), Under 3.5 (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 win✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 53.6% · @ 1.74
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.81
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin win✓ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.24
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.57
0.93
1.00
1.62
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.18
1.75
1.75
0.86
2.43
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.79
1.50
0.60
1.11
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.77
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.87
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.14
1.50
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.65
1.27
1.73
1.17
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 1.69-5.6%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 2.10+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
5.9%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
FSV Mainz 05 goals ↓
Union Berlin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.9%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.6%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FSV Mainz 05 goals (down), columns = Union Berlin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.03 points better than Union Berlin in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin are level in goals scored per game (both 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.15 goals better than Union Berlin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
FSV Mainz 05 is 3.7 percentage points better than Union Berlin in terms of average possession (44% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
For 5.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union Berlin
For 3.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 8.2 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FSV Mainz 05
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.2
4.5
4.2
4.8
22.1
23.1
21.2
vs Stronger (18)
8.8
9.1
8.6
4.8
4.4
5.2
23.5
25.7
21.3
vs Similar (32)
9.6
9.7
9.5
4.3
4.0
4.6
21.4
21.7
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
44%
64%
60%
68%
54%
60%
48%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
36%
40%
32%
46%
40%
52%
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.5
3.9
4.2
3.5
21.9
22.8
20.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.6
10.7
10.5
3.5
4.3
2.7
19.6
19.5
19.7
vs Similar (37)
8.9
9.1
8.8
3.9
4.1
3.8
22.7
23.9
21.3
vs Weaker (1)
14.0
-
14.0
5.0
-
5.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
50%
58%
42%
44%
50%
38%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
50%
42%
58%
56%
50%
62%
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
Hamburger SV
9.9
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.4
Werder Bremen
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.3
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
22.8
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
FSV Mainz 05
22.1
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.9
1. FC Heidenheim
21.5
1. FC Köln
20.8
Werder Bremen
20.7
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
43.5%
Under 21.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FSV Mainz 05
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.79
0.21
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
1.50
0.00
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.26
0.50
0.30
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.83
0.36
0.82
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (35)
€619m
BD (33)
€500m
VS (34)
€448m
EF (30)
€357m
VW (33)
€201m
HS (33)
€177m
WB (32)
€168m
BM (33)
€162m
FM0 (31)
€154m
UB (29)
€130m
SP0 (31)
€53m
FSV Mainz 05's squad is €24m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€154m vs €130m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (15)
€346m
VS (11)
€210m
EF (14)
€183m
BD (9)
€170m
VW (9)
€78m
BM (13)
€64m
HS (15)
€58m
FM0 (10)
€50m
WB (9)
€47m
UB (9)
€37m
SP0 (11)
€10m
FSV Mainz 05's attack is €13m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€50m vs €37m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (7)
€122m
RL (7)
€104m
VS (6)
€88m
FM0 (6)
€62m
BM (8)
€51m
EF (4)
€50m
WB (5)
€30m
UB (6)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
HS (2)
€21m
SP0 (9)
€21m
FSV Mainz 05's midfield is €37m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€62m vs €25m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (17)
€208m
RL (13)
€168m
VS (17)
€150m
EF (12)
€124m
VW (18)
€98m
HS (16)
€98m
WB (18)
€91m
UB (14)
€68m
BM (12)
€47m
FM0 (15)
€42m
SP0 (11)
€22m
FSV Mainz 05's defence is €26m less valuable than Union Berlin's (€42m vs €68m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →