Fulham are the clear favourites, with a 43% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of a Palace win. The model predicts an average of 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. Fulham, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, have averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Crystal Palace, on the road, have averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (97.7% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.3% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.7% with a 5% edge) and Under 5.5 (93.7% with a 2% edge). Fulham’s recent form shows a win, loss, win, loss, win after a defeat, while Palace’s last five contain two straight defeats, a loss to Manchester City 1-4 and a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fulham win
42.8%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.30
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.37
Dafabet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.32
Unibet
2.32
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.37
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.44
Marathonbet
3.44
Crystal Palace win
30.6%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.11
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Marathonbet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fulham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.20
1.60
1.00
0.93
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.43
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.86
1.36
0.82
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.20
1.07
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.21
1.33
0.78
1.30
1.60
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.27+6.4%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 3.60-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.87
Unibet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Betano
3.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.88+5.7%
Under 2.5
43.7%
@ 1.93-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
SBO
2.01
1xBet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
@ 3.10+3.6%
Under 3.5
66.1%
@ 1.35-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.21
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
Unibet
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
@ 1.67+4.1%
No
40.0%
@ 2.12-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
No
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.14+4.9%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.64+3.8%
1-2
7.5%@ 10.22+3.0%
1-0
7.4%@ 8.08+1.7%
2-0
6.8%@ 11.16+2.7%
0-0
6.4%@ 10.13+1.9%
2-2
6.1%@ 12.25+2.3%
0-1
5.9%@ 9.70+1.2%
Fulham goals ↓
Crystal Palace goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.9%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.4%
12%
7.5%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.1%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.7%
4.9%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fulham goals (down), columns = Crystal Palace goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Fulham is 0.18 points better than Crystal Palace in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Fulham is 0.16 goals better than Crystal Palace in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Fulham and Crystal Palace are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Fulham is 5.6 percentage points better than Crystal Palace in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fulham
For 6.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crystal Palace
For 2.5 · Against 6.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fulham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.7
3.6
3.8
3.4
20.0
19.8
20.1
vs Stronger (12)
10.9
11.6
10.0
2.4
2.4
2.4
17.8
17.1
18.8
vs Similar (33)
10.1
10.8
9.4
4.2
4.8
3.7
21.4
21.8
20.9
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
12.3
11.0
2.2
1.7
3.0
15.8
15.7
16.0
% over line
66%
77%
54%
50%
54%
46%
32%
35%
29%
% under line
34%
23%
46%
50%
46%
54%
68%
65%
71%
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.4
9.0
3.7
3.8
3.6
21.3
22.1
20.4
vs Stronger (9)
8.4
7.0
9.6
2.6
2.8
2.4
19.7
18.8
20.4
vs Similar (32)
9.0
8.7
9.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
20.8
21.9
19.8
vs Weaker (9)
8.1
8.6
7.5
4.6
4.8
4.2
24.3
25.4
23.0
% over line
42%
40%
44%
56%
52%
60%
42%
52%
32%
% under line
58%
60%
56%
44%
48%
40%
58%
48%
68%
This opponent (Fulham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.3%
@ 1.69+1.4%
Under 9.5
43.7%
@ 2.06-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.2%
@ 1.73-1.5%
Under 3.5
47.8%
@ 2.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.90
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.0%
Under 21.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fulham or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied 69.4% · @ 1.35
Edge
+2.7%
43%
27%
31%
covers Fulham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Fulham or Crystal Palace
72.7%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.30
Edge
+0.6%
43%
27%
31%
covers Fulham + Crystal Palace
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Crystal Palace
55.2%
Avg Implied 58.5% · @ 1.61
Edge
-3.2%
43%
27%
31%
covers Draw + Crystal Palace
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
SBO
1.61
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fulham over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
@ 1.22+3.1%
Under
20.8%
@ 3.90-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.19
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.82
BetVictor
3.80
Fulham over/under 1.5
Over
46.6%
@ 2.14+2.8%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.67-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Fulham over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
@ 4.64+0.9%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.17-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Fulham over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
@ 10.45-1.4%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5
Over
69.9%
@ 1.33-0.2%
Under
30.1%
@ 3.11+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5
Over
33.8%
@ 2.62-1.9%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.46+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
1xBet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.67
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
@ 6.26-2.8%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Crystal Palace over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
@ 14.75-3.1%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fulham, so a minus line means Fulham give that many goals of a start and Crystal Palace receive them. At -1, Fulham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fulham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fulham)
Fulham -2
9.5%
@ 9.66+0.2%
Draw -2
13.9%
@ 6.48-0.0%
Crystal Palace +2
76.6%
@ 1.17-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Fulham)
Fulham -1
23.4%
@ 4.28+2.5%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 3.85-1.9%
Crystal Palace +1
55.2%
@ 1.61-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Fulham)
Fulham +1
72.1%
@ 1.35+5.8%
Draw +1
16.0%
@ 4.61-3.5%
Crystal Palace -1
11.9%
@ 6.31-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Fulham)
Fulham +2
88.1%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 8.75-2.3%
Crystal Palace -2
3.8%
@ 15.75-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fulham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.27
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.29
0.55
0.18
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.74
0.67
0.67
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.1%
@ 1.38+3.0%
Under 0.5
28.9%
@ 2.94-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.14
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 2.70-1.1%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.43+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.81
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
@ 6.74-1.8%
Under 2.5
88.0%
@ 1.08+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.65
Marathonbet
6.65
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fulham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.5%
@ 1.95+4.6%
Under
47.5%
@ 1.79-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Fulham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.1%
@ 5.73-0.1%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.10+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Unibet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Fulham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
@ 11.75-4.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.3%
@ 2.19-4.3%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.62+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
@ 7.04-4.5%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 12.50-6.2%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fulham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.73
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.57
0.82
0.64
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Crystal Palace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crystal Palace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.73
0.47
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.11
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.22+2.8%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 3.97-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.6%
@ 2.04+0.7%
Under 1.5
53.4%
@ 1.73-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.7%
@ 4.29-3.1%
Under 2.5
81.3%
@ 1.20+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Unibet
4.40
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fulham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.2%
@ 1.63+3.2%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.16-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.12
Fulham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.1%
@ 4.06-1.7%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.20+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Fulham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 9.25-4.8%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Crystal Palace over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
@ 1.84-2.4%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.87+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Crystal Palace over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 5.11-4.5%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.13+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Crystal Palace over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 10.50-6.3%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
Under 5.5
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+1.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+4.5%
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
-
+4.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+2.8%
Under 25.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
+4.5%
Under 4.5
85.2%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+0.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+0.1%
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+3.1%
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.27
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+6.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+2.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.2%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.1%
1.17
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-0.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+1.7%
Away +2 handicap
76.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-0.2%
Under 23.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
1.31
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
-
-
+1.8%
Home or Away
72.7%
1.30
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+0.6%
Home or Draw
72.1%
1.35
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
+2.7%
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
1.35
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.30
+5.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.38
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
+3.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fulham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonzalo García67%
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
César Palacios0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Calvin Bassey33%
César Palacios33%
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Sessegnon33%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
César Palacios0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
César Palacios0%
Crystal Palace · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismaïla Sarr36%
Jean-Philippe Mateta24%
Edward Nketiah21%
Evann Guessand14%
Jørgen Strand Larsen14%
Daniel Muñoz11%
Yéremy Pino10%
Marc Guéhi9%
Christantus Uche9%
Justin Devenny6%
Maxence Lacroix6%
Tyrick Mitchell6%
Chris Richards4%
Daichi Kamada2%
Adam Wharton2%
Jefferson Lerma0%
Will Hughes0%
Nathaniel Clyne0%
Dean Henderson0%
Walter Benítez0%
Borna Sosa0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Chadi Riad0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Romain Esse0%
Jaydee Canvot0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chadi Riad33%
Borna Sosa29%
Jørgen Strand Larsen23%
Marc Guéhi22%
Will Hughes19%
Jaydee Canvot17%
Edward Nketiah16%
Yéremy Pino16%
Daniel Muñoz16%
Brennan Johnson15%
Adam Wharton15%
Jefferson Lerma15%
Romain Esse12%
Chris Richards12%
Maxence Lacroix11%
Tyrick Mitchell11%
Dean Henderson10%
Ismaïla Sarr9%
Daichi Kamada9%
Jean-Philippe Mateta8%
Nathaniel Clyne7%
Walter Benítez0%
Evann Guessand0%
Justin Devenny0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Christantus Uche0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adam Wharton10%
Marc Guéhi9%
Daichi Kamada9%
Daniel Muñoz9%
Jefferson Lerma9%
Chadi Riad8%
Yéremy Pino8%
Brennan Johnson8%
Tyrick Mitchell7%
Nathaniel Clyne7%
Evann Guessand7%
Jean-Philippe Mateta6%
Maxence Lacroix6%
Edward Nketiah5%
Jørgen Strand Larsen5%
Justin Devenny3%
Ismaïla Sarr2%
Will Hughes2%
Dean Henderson0%
Walter Benítez0%
Borna Sosa0%
Chris Richards0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Romain Esse0%
Christantus Uche0%
Jaydee Canvot0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jean-Philippe Mateta18%
Ismaïla Sarr16%
Christantus Uche9%
Evann Guessand7%
Borna Sosa6%
Yéremy Pino6%
Edward Nketiah5%
Jørgen Strand Larsen5%
Chris Richards4%
Brennan Johnson4%
Adam Wharton4%
Justin Devenny3%
Daniel Muñoz2%
Jefferson Lerma2%
Will Hughes2%
Maxence Lacroix2%
Daichi Kamada0%
Nathaniel Clyne0%
Dean Henderson0%
Walter Benítez0%
Marc Guéhi0%
Tyrick Mitchell0%
Chadi Riad0%
Kaden Rodney0%
Rio Cardines0%
Romain Esse0%
Jaydee Canvot0%
Joel Drakes-Thomas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Fulham's squad is €176m less valuable than Crystal Palace's (€329m vs €505m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Fulham's attack is €50m less valuable than Crystal Palace's (€178m vs €229m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Fulham's midfield is €66m less valuable than Crystal Palace's (€28m vs €93m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Fulham's defence is €60m less valuable than Crystal Palace's (€123m vs €182m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Coventry
Aston Villa
Tottenham