PythiaFootballBETA
This Premier League match on May 24th pits Fulham against Newcastle. The recent storyline is that Fulham are coming off a win, having beaten Newcastle 2-0 in their last encounter. However, it's a finely balanced contest with the home win percentage standing at 36%, draw at 28%, and away win at 36%.
The model favours a home win, with a predicted average of 2.7 goals expected. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%. Fulham's home form is somewhat inconsistent, scoring an average of 1.12 goals and conceding 1.0 per match against similar opponents. Newcastle's away form, meanwhile, is slightly more potent, scoring 1.71 goals and conceding 1.29 per match.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.2% chance of success and Under 3.5 with a 71.6% chance.
Fulham's win extends their run, having come off a win and secured a 2-0 victory over Newcastle. The final score was 2-0, resulting in a home win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Home win, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The model's call was correct, as the actual result was indeed a home win. The model's selection, Home win, came in as expected. The model's selection, Over 1.5, with a probability of 76.2%, hit, while Under 3.5, with a probability of 71.6%, also hit.
Fulham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.36 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Newcastle| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.63 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.94 | 1.53 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.75 | 1.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Newcastle goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 14% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
FulhamNewcastleFulham| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 20.6 | 20.9 | 20.3 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 10.3 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 19.3 | 19.6 | 18.9 |
| vs Similar (27) | 10.4 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 21.0 | 21.5 | 20.5 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 25.5 |
| % over line | 64% | 75% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 42% | 50% | 35% |
| % under line | 36% | 25% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 58% | 50% | 65% |
Newcastle| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.2 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 21.7 | 23.0 | 20.2 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 11.3 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 21.7 | 22.6 | 20.5 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.8 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 22.2 | 23.3 | 21.3 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 12.7 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 19.1 | 22.5 | 14.7 |
| % over line | 62% | 69% | 54% | 58% | 69% | 46% | 52% | 58% | 46% |
| % under line | 38% | 31% | 46% | 42% | 31% | 54% | 48% | 42% | 54% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/02/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/12/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/01/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/10/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 23/05/21 | H | 0-2 |
Fulham| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Newcastle| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 7-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 85 | 68% | 2.2 | 71 | 27 | +44 | 2.6 | 71% | 53% | 24% | 9.1 | 42% | 3.2 | 47% | 21.3 | 47% | 1280 | 555 | 225 | 500 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 38 | 78 | 61% | 2.1 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 63% | 21% | 10.3 | 58% | 3.9 | 63% | 20.9 | 42% | 1243 | 542 | 166 | 535 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 69 | 50 | +19 | 3.1 | 84% | 63% | 37% | 9.7 | 53% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.2 | 47% | 764 | 362 | 102 | 300 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 65 | 50% | 1.7 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 2.8 | 74% | 53% | 29% | 10.2 | 68% | 3.9 | 61% | 23.0 | 63% | 583 | 270 | 168 | 146 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 60 | 45% | 1.6 | 63 | 53 | +10 | 3.1 | 84% | 61% | 29% | 10.5 | 55% | 3.6 | 50% | 20.7 | 37% | 940 | 490 | 201 | 248 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 59% |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 57 | 34% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.9 | 76% | 55% | 42% | 10.9 | 63% | 4.3 | 63% | 22.5 | 53% | 658 | 353 | 106 | 199 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  Sunderland | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 2.4 | 71% | 45% | 18% | 9.0 | 45% | 4.1 | 55% | 22.1 | 58% | 415 | 168 | 108 | 140 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 8 |  Brighton | 38 | 53 | 37% | 1.4 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 2.6 | 82% | 50% | 18% | 9.7 | 58% | 4.3 | 63% | 22.0 | 55% | 592 | 191 | 176 | 225 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Brentford | 38 | 53 | 37% | 1.4 | 55 | 52 | +3 | 2.8 | 82% | 53% | 37% | 10.2 | 63% | 3.7 | 53% | 19.6 | 34% | 482 | 208 | 89 | 186 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 47% |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 38 | 52 | 37% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 2.9 | 87% | 66% | 32% | 10.4 | 68% | 4.7 | 71% | 23.4 | 68% | 1114 | 418 | 267 | 430 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 57% |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 52 | 39% | 1.4 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.5 | 66% | 3.8 | 58% | 20.8 | 39% | 356 | 188 | 38 | 131 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 2.8 | 76% | 63% | 34% | 11.0 | 61% | 4.2 | 61% | 22.1 | 53% | 696 | 249 | 249 | 198 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 13 |  Everton | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 2.6 | 76% | 45% | 21% | 9.4 | 42% | 3.7 | 47% | 21.7 | 58% | 443 | 194 | 126 | 123 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 14 |  Leeds | 38 | 47 | 29% | 1.2 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 2.8 | 74% | 55% | 37% | 9.5 | 53% | 3.4 | 42% | 21.7 | 47% | 373 | 142 | 98 | 134 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 71% | 55% | 21% | 9.4 | 47% | 3.7 | 63% | 20.2 | 37% | 553 | 255 | 93 | 205 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 2.6 | 82% | 53% | 26% | 10.1 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.2 | 53% | 621 | 301 | 117 | 203 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 2.8 | 82% | 63% | 26% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.7 | 71% | 22.3 | 58% | 713 | 250 | 177 | 286 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 18 |  West Ham | 38 | 39 | 26% | 1.0 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 2.9 | 87% | 61% | 29% | 11.0 | 66% | 3.8 | 55% | 21.7 | 47% | 449 | 174 | 112 | 164 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 19 |  Burnley | 38 | 22 | 11% | 0.6 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 3.0 | 84% | 50% | 39% | 9.6 | 53% | 2.9 | 39% | 19.5 | 37% | 233 | 100 | 48 | 85 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 42% |
| 20 |  Wolves | 38 | 20 | 8% | 0.5 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 9.4 | 58% | 3.8 | 58% | 23.8 | 66% | 311 | 86 | 111 | 115 | 0.7 | 1.8 | - |