Gais are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 69 % chance of a home win, 22 % for a draw and 9 % for Halmstad to triumph. The prediction stems from Gais’ solid home form, scoring and conceding an average of one goal against weaker opponents, while Halmstad struggle away, conceding 1.8 goals to stronger teams. The expected total is 2.5 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26 % probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 15 % chance, reflecting the home side’s advantage. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 89 %, Under 4.5 cards at 77.3 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.8 %, Under 3.5 at 74.7 %, Over 1.5 at 73.2 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.5 % and Over 8.5 corners at 72.2 %. Gais’ recent form shows a win after two straight defeats, while Halmstad return from a draw, underscoring the home side’s edge in this fixture.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with the pre-match favourite Gais failing to secure the win. The final score was 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call of a home win incorrect. The model had given Gais a 69% chance of victory, yet the match finished level. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (89%) missed, Under 4.5 cards (77.3%) missed, Under 25.5 fouls (74.8%) hit, Under 3.5 (74.7%) hit, Over 1.5 (73.2%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (72.5%) hit, and Over 8.5 corners (72.2%) hit. Gais had been in a slump, with two straight defeats before the game, while Halmstad had come off a draw. The outcome surprised the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gais win✗ Miss
69.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Halmstad win✗ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gais
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
2.00
0.75
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.56
1.19
2.07
0.73
0.92
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Halmstad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halmstad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.57
0.64
1.57
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.71
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.44
0.70
1.60
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gais) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.9%
Under 2.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.3%
No
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.0%
1-0
14.4%
1-1 ✓
10.0%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
4.8%
Gais goals ↓
Halmstad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
3.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10.0%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.9%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
9.8%
5.8%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
4
4.8%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gais goals (down), columns = Halmstad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.33
Hammarby FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.72
Djurgardens IF
1.71
AIK Stockholm
1.65
IF Elfsborg
1.56
Malmo FF
1.44
Vasteras SK FK
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
Gais
1.28
Mjallby AIF
1.25
IFK Goteborg
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.06
Degerfors IF
0.89
Orgryte IS
0.78
Halmstad
0.44
Gais is 0.83 points better than Halmstad in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 0.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.61
Hammarby FF
2.33
Djurgardens IF
2.18
BK Hacken
1.78
Malmo FF
1.78
Mjallby AIF
1.50
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.39
Vasteras SK FK
1.39
IFK Goteborg
1.28
Orgryte IS
1.22
Kalmar FF
1.17
Gais
1.17
Degerfors IF
0.94
Halmstad
0.67
Gais is 0.50 goals better than Halmstad in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hammarby FF
0.83
Gais
1.00
IF Elfsborg
1.06
Djurgardens IF
1.12
Mjallby AIF
1.44
BK Hacken
1.44
Sirius
1.44
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
Kalmar FF
1.56
Degerfors IF
1.61
Malmo FF
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.78
Halmstad
1.94
IFK Goteborg
2.17
Orgryte IS
2.28
Gais is 0.94 goals better than Halmstad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.94).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Malmo FF
57%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Mjallby AIF
54%
AIK Stockholm
52%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
Vasteras SK FK
47%
IF Elfsborg
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Kalmar FF
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Gais is 9.2 percentage points better than Halmstad in terms of average possession (50% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gais
For 5.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 8.8 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Halmstad
For 3.9 · Against 7.2 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 9.4 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gais
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.0
9.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.7
23.5
25.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.4
11.3
9.6
3.3
3.0
3.8
24.9
23.1
26.6
vs Weaker (9)
9.0
9.5
8.3
2.4
4.5
0.8
23.4
25.0
21.3
% over line
55%
64%
45%
44%
44%
44%
75%
68%
82%
% under line
45%
36%
55%
56%
56%
56%
25%
32%
18%
This opponent (Halmstad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halmstad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.0
10.6
2.9
3.2
2.7
23.9
24.5
23.3
vs Stronger (24)
9.7
8.9
10.2
3.1
2.9
3.3
23.7
23.8
23.6
vs Similar (26)
9.9
9.1
11.2
2.7
3.3
1.8
24.1
25.0
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
45%
57%
42%
48%
36%
67%
68%
67%
% under line
49%
55%
43%
58%
52%
64%
33%
32%
33%
This opponent (Gais) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.4
Sirius
11.1
Orgryte IS
10.9
AIK Stockholm
10.8
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Djurgardens IF
10.6
BK Hacken
10.6
Vasteras SK FK
10.5
Mjallby AIF
10.2
Gais
10.2
Malmo FF
10.2
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.0
Hammarby FF
10.0
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Halmstad
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.6
BK Hacken
4.4
IFK Goteborg
4.4
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Hammarby FF
3.6
IF Brommapojkarna
3.6
Malmo FF
3.6
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Vasteras SK FK
3.5
Halmstad
3.4
Kalmar FF
3.4
Sirius
3.3
Orgryte IS
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
IFK Goteborg
26.6
Djurgardens IF
25.9
Mjallby AIF
25.5
Sirius
25.3
Hammarby FF
25.0
Gais
24.8
Malmo FF
24.8
Degerfors IF
24.7
Vasteras SK FK
24.5
BK Hacken
24.2
AIK Stockholm
24.1
IF Brommapojkarna
24.1
Halmstad
23.9
IF Elfsborg
23.8
Kalmar FF
23.4
Orgryte IS
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.4%
Under 9.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.5%
Under 21.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gais
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.12
0.12
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.44
1.13
0.13
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Halmstad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halmstad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.36
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.79
0.25
0.75
0.70
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Gais) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halmstad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halmstad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halmstad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gais
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.88
0.62
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.74
0.93
0.60
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Halmstad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halmstad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.29
1.07
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.93
0.25
0.75
0.30
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.94
0.30
1.20
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gais) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halmstad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halmstad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halmstad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Gais's squad is €6m more valuable than Halmstad's (€13m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Gais and Halmstad have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
Gais's midfield is €2m more valuable than Halmstad's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Gais's defence is €2m more valuable than Halmstad's (€5m vs €3m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →